Predicting Bitcoin's performance in June 2025 requires a comprehensive consideration of market trends, technical analysis, macroeconomic factors, and historical data, but the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market makes any prediction uncertain. Here is an analysis and prediction based on available information:
1. Short-term Price Prediction (June 2025)
According to predictions from longforecast.cn, Bitcoin's price performance in June 2025 is as follows:
Beginning-of-month price: approximately $112,100.
End-of-month price: approximately $122,238, with an increase of about 9.0%.
Price Range: could go as high as $133,901, with a possible low of $103,418.
Average Price: approximately $117,914. This suggests a continuation of moderate upward trends in June, but volatility remains, and investors need to focus on the support level at $103,418 and the resistance level at $133,901.
2. Market Trends and Driving Factors
Institutional Investment: Recent data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to see inflows, for instance, in the week ending October 25, 2024, the inflow reached $920 million, totaling $25.4 billion year-to-date. This influx of institutional funds supports Bitcoin's price and may drive further increases in June.
Halving Cycle Impact: The Bitcoin halving event in April 2024 reduced the supply of new coins, and prices typically rise within 12-18 months after a halving. Historical data shows that bull market trends average 480 days post-halving, and June 2025 falls within this window, favoring price performance.
Macroeconomic Factors: Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased global liquidity may stimulate the rise of risk assets like Bitcoin. Furthermore, post-U.S. election policies (such as Trump's supportive stance on cryptocurrencies) may further boost market sentiment.
Market Sentiment: Despite Bitcoin recently breaking the $100,000 mark, retail participation remains low, and market sentiment stays rational, with funding rates and trading volumes not significantly amplifying. This may limit rapid increases in the short term but also suggests the market has not overheated, with steady growth expected in June.
3. Technical Analysis and On-Chain Data
Support and Resistance: On-chain analysts indicate that $94,000 is an important support level (with a cost basis of 420,000 BTC), while $120,000 is the next key resistance level. Prices in June may move towards above $120,000 following a breakout past $106,600 (with a cost basis of 31,000 BTC).
RSI Indicator: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that Bitcoin has not yet entered the overheating zone (RSI > 75), currently being neutral to high, suggesting there is still room for growth in June, but caution is warranted regarding short-term correction risks, such as potential volatility from PCE data exceeding expectations on May 30.
Behavior of Long-Term Holders: Short-term holders (STH) have been selling recently, while long-term holders (LTH) continue to reduce supply (decreasing by 89,738 BTC over the past 30 days), which may reflect profit-taking but also provides a foundation for price stability.
4. Risk Factors
Correction Risk: If the RSI rises above 75 or external shocks (such as inflation data exceeding expectations) occur, it may trigger a correction, with prices potentially falling to around $94,000.
Regulatory Uncertainty: Although U.S. policies towards cryptocurrencies may become more favorable, regulatory changes globally (such as the investigation into Tether) could lead to market volatility.
Altcoin Competition: If the 'Altcoin Season' starts in June, funds may flow to other cryptocurrencies, limiting Bitcoin's dominance and price increase.
5. Expert and Institutional Predictions
Optimistic Prediction: Some institutions (like Bernstein) predict Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, with June potentially being a transitional phase for this trend. Trader Dave the Wave believes that if it breaks through $110,000, it could surge towards $160,000 in the short term.
Cautious View: Matrixport warns that if retail funds do not follow suit, upward momentum may slow, advising investors to take profits at high levels.
6. Historical Performance Reference
Bitcoin's historical performance in June has been inconsistent, but following a breakthrough of $70,000 in October 2024, the market entered a new upward cycle. Historical data shows that the average increase in June during bull markets is low, but the second year post-halving often performs strongly, which may benefit June 2025.
Conclusion
Overall, Bitcoin is expected to continue rising in June 2025, with prices projected between $103,418 and $133,901, potentially reaching around $122,238 by the end of the month, representing a gain of about 9%. Institutional fund inflows, the halving cycle, and favorable macroeconomic conditions are the main driving factors, but caution is needed regarding short-term corrections and regulatory risks. Investors should closely monitor the resistance level at $120,000 and the support level at $94,000, as well as indicators like RSI and PCE data.
Disclaimer: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and predictions are for reference only, not investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research (DYOR) and act with caution.
