$BTC #FTX赔付 #中心化与去中心化交易所 #交易类型入门 $SOL

Brothers, happy Dragon Boat Festival. Recently, BTC has experienced some pullback,

Is it the bear market approaching, or a rebound in the making? Let's analyze.

The recent pullback is still due to the adverse macro environment [recession]:

1. Unfavorable progress in trade negotiations

2. Repeated judicial rulings on Trump's tariffs, legal battles taking a long time, seeking other means to impose tariffs

3. Unclear expectations for Fed interest rate cuts, Powell has repeatedly emphasized that there is no rush to cut rates

Currently, the two major forces affecting the cryptocurrency market,

Both stem from Trump, one positive and one negative.

Positive aspect: Support for cryptocurrencies, introducing various policies for protection

Negative aspect: Aggressive tariff imposition, leading to soaring prices, the Fed not cutting rates

Market fluctuations revolve around these two major factors

But upon careful analysis,

We find that the positive factors outweigh the negative factors.

Firstly, because the policies are aggressive and impactful,

The U.S. has passed a stablecoin bill, and outside the federal level,

Various states are starting to include BTC in their strategic reserves.

Tariffs have driven up prices, leading to a decline in U.S. stocks,

The credibility of U.S. assets is damaged, and bond yields rise.

But over time, the capital willing to buy U.S. bonds decreases.

The funds that withdraw, some will buy gold, and some will flow into BTC.

So, despite the recent pullback,

On-chain data shows that not much BTC is flowing into exchanges,

Indicating signs of being unable to sell.

Before the Fed cuts rates, altcoins won't have good opportunities.

Currently, BTC's pullback is healthy (30-day moving average), so there's no need to worry too much.

It is recommended to patiently hold BTC primarily, and consider dollar-cost averaging.