BTC #BTCUSDT Direction: Technical analysis leads, short-term bearish (probability 49.8%), fundamental analysis neutral (ETF capital flow support vs. on-chain data weakness).

Recommended Actions:

Short Entry: Place a sell order @104,270 (30-minute optimization point), stop loss @104,500, take profit @103,650 (first target) and @103,032 (second target).

Wait Conditions: If the price does not drop below 104,277.3 or rebounds above 104,500, pause entry and wait for new signals.

Bullish Opportunity: Only if the price breaks above 104,500 and 1-hour MACD golden cross = 1, take a small long position (target 104,859.3), but the current probability is low.

Key Risks:

Support at 103,032.1, if strongly held, may trigger a rebound (MACD golden cross signal).

Fundamental events (such as a sudden rise in U.S. Treasury yields) may reverse the trend.

Holding Time: Short-term (4-12 hours), as the 4-hour trend is bearish but close to support.