📉 $BTC （2025-06-01 08:00）｜Long/Short Trend Index: 34 / 100 (Bearish Downward)
Short-term rebound exhaustion, rebound angle is weak, overall structure remains bearish.
🔹 Multi-Period K-Line Trend Judgment:
15-Minute Chart: Moving averages in bearish arrangement, rebound momentum exhausted, weak oscillation;
1-Hour Chart: A short-term bottom divergence rebound occurs, but MA25/99 still has strong pressure, not yet reversed;
4-Hour Chart: Downward trend from 112K high point is clear, current weak rebound is in the middle of the downward channel;
Daily Chart: MACD death cross downward continues, three consecutive days of closing in the red, bullish momentum shrinking;
Weekly Chart: Last week's high and fall formed a long upper shadow bearish candle, this week is under pressure for confirmation.
📈 Technical Indicator Observation:
1. MACD: Multi-period death cross, bearish momentum continues to be released;
2. RSI: All below 50, short period has a slight rebound but has not escaped the weak zone;
3. Moving Average System: 15m/1H/4H are all in bearish arrangement, clear suppression;
4. Trading Volume: During the rebound process, volume did not follow up, indicating a lack of sustained buying support.
🌐 Macroeconomic Brief (Including Sources):
1. Mt.Gox compensation progress reported to start repayments in July (Source: CoinDesk, May 30);
2. US SEC again delays decision on spot ETH ETF application (Source: The Block, May 31);
3. US core PCE data exceeds expectations, interest rate hike expectations rise (Source: CNBC, May 31);
4. BTC on-chain active addresses and transaction volume have declined for five consecutive days (Source: Glassnode, May 31).
As mentioned earlier, multi-period trends are bearish, rebound angle is weak, it is currently not advisable to easily catch the bottom; it is better to remain in cash or light positions and wait for a clearer strong structure before taking action. It is crucial to pay attention to the support zone of 103K~102K, and once it breaks below, it may accelerate downward.
