6.1 BTC Early Morning Analysis

Current Price: 104,738.9

Price Change: +0.81%

Net Inflow: -93.11 million

News: VC cautious, crypto market trading cools down

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Technical Analysis:

Bollinger Bands

Upper Band: 108,884.6

Middle Band: 105,767.6

Lower Band: 102,650.7

Currently, the K-line is running between the middle and lower bands. The price has rebounded after gaining support from the lower band (103032.1), but has not yet broken through the middle band resistance at 105,767, indicating that market sentiment remains cautious.

Trend Judgment

Short-term rebound is still ongoing, but the trend has not fully reversed.

In a downtrend, the first rebound is often a technical correction. If it cannot stabilize at the middle band, it may be seen as a “dead cat bounce.”

Key Resistance/Support Levels

Short-term Resistance: 105,700 (Bollinger Middle Band)

Strong Resistance: 108,000

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News Summary:

🔹 Despite BTC reaching a new high this month, VC institutions have recently adopted a cautious stance, and capital deployment is prudent, indicating weakening buying momentum in the market.

🔹 The current market rebound relies more on previous overselling and short covering rather than substantive buying pressure.

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📌 Trading Suggestions:

Long:

If the price pulls back to the 103200~103500 range and confirms a stop-loss signal, consider attempting a small position long, targeting 105700.

If it breaks through 105700 with volume and stabilizes, increase the position targeting 108000.

📉 Short:

If the price rebounds to around 105700 but does not break through, and shows a volume stagnation or long upper shadow K-line, consider shorting in the 105500~105700 range.

If it breaks down below 103000 and stabilizes, pursue a short to the 102000~101200 range.

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📌 Risk Control Tips:

Currently, the market's funding is bearish, so manage positions carefully and set strict stop losses.

Summary:

The short-term rebound of BTC has not changed the overall trend. If the rebound does not break 105700, it remains weak, and the strategy is more suitable for “high shorts, low longs, quick in and out.”