Today is the Dragon Boat Festival, and the market has experienced a bit of a panic-induced pullback, mainly due to the fluctuations in trade relations between the U.S. and China as discussed by the President, leading to short-term pessimism in market sentiment. When analyzing issues, one must grasp the main contradictions and the primary aspects of those contradictions. Currently, the core PCE in the U.S. for April has reached its lowest level since March 2021. Although the Federal Reserve has not cut interest rates recently, it has ended its balance sheet reduction and still has significant room for rate cuts, entering a rate-cutting cycle. The expectation of over a trillion in U.S. Treasury stablecoin growth, along with the recent SEC ruling that ETH staking is not classified as a security, are both long-term positive factors. The market is now greatly influenced by the President; however, even someone as strong as the President cannot long defy economic laws, and prices will eventually revert to their value. On the other hand, the President's repeated adjustments to trade tariffs among nations have further stimulated global demand for cross-border payments in digital currencies.
From a technical perspective, I believe this pullback is very healthy. Ethereum has seen a violent surge with too much capital attempting to break through trends, so clearing out leverage is quite beneficial. Now that more people are engaging in short selling, future rebounds will be even more violent. If you have spare funds, this is an excellent opportunity to buy ETH spot.
Technical analysis does not hold a high weight in my investment analysis; at the very least, I look at the three-day moving average. James Wynn has lost 100 million dollars in the past week, which again reminds us that technical analysis detached from macro analysis is not robust. In summary, those with funds should strategically add to their Ethereum holdings, while those without should enjoy the festival and wait for the main upward trend.