ETH continues to consolidate below the key resistance level around $2,800, struggling to break through after a strong rebound in early May.

Although bulls have maintained higher lows in the short term, repeated rejections at the same level have raised doubts about buyers' confidence in these highs.

Technical Analysis

Daily Chart

Ethereum is currently consolidating below the major resistance level of $2,800, which aligns with the 200-day moving average. The upward trend that started around $1,500 has paused, with the RSI slightly dipping below 70, reflecting a weakening bullish momentum.

Nonetheless, prices remain above the 100-day moving average and the previously broken area around $2,200, indicating a structural bullish outlook unless these levels are broken. A breakout above $2,800 would open the path to the $3,400-$3,600 supply zone. Conversely, failure to break through may trigger a retest of the $2,200 demand block.

4-Hour Chart

The four-hour chart shows that prices have formed a clear ascending triangle between the resistance level of $2,800 and the support level of about $2,500. This structure resembles a potential distribution phase following two strong accumulation areas below $1,850 earlier this month. Although ETH continues to make higher lows, its repeated pullbacks at highs are beginning to pressure the short-term outlook.

The RSI indicator is also hovering around 47, indicating a neutral shift in momentum. A drop below $2,500 and the lower limit of the pattern would signal a bearish reversal towards $2,100; if a breakout above $2,800 is confirmed, it would overturn the distribution scenario and favor upward movement.

Sentiment Analysis

The Coinbase premium index is currently slightly above zero, indicating moderate spot demand from U.S. investors. Historically, rising premiums often precede strong bullish trends driven by institutions or large retail buyers on Coinbase. Although the current premium level is not high, it reflects the potential strength of the spot market and a slightly higher willingness to buy ETH on U.S. exchanges.

If the premium starts to widen again as ETH approaches the resistance level, it may indicate a resurgence of confidence and a potential breakout. On the other hand, if the premium falls back or turns negative, it may signal a decrease in investor interest and a possible short-term top, which seems to be occurring at the moment.

Therefore, if demand in the U.S. declines, ETH is likely to enter a correction phase again.