Avalanche (AVAX) is currently approaching the key $25 resistance level, with on-chain data indicating that the market is brewing a potential breakout. During the consolidation below this price level, net inflows to whale addresses surged, increasing by **+191.9%** month-over-month, showing that large funds are actively positioning themselves. At the same time, retail investor participation has also noticeably risen, with retail wallet concentration up by +12.93%, and activity in smaller transactions also increased, with transaction volumes in the $1,000 to $10,000 range skyrocketing by +282.63%. These key indicators collectively suggest that both institutions and retail investors are actively participating in AVAX's accumulation phase, and market sentiment is gradually warming up.

As large holders accumulate near key resistance levels, whale inflows are rising.

This week, whale behavior has changed dramatically, with net flow increasing by +191.9% over the past seven days. This accumulation coincides with AVAX testing key resistance levels, indicating heightened interest in whale positions.

Although the motivations behind this accumulation (whether driven by speculation or long-term confidence) remain unclear, it evidently supports bullish momentum.

If whale inflows continue, they may provide the necessary strength for a breakout. Conversely, a slowdown in accumulation may lead to the loss of bullish momentum.

Mid-range trading volume is increasing, with retail buyers dominating.

Retail market activity continues to strengthen, with transaction volumes in the $1,000 to $10,000 range soaring +282.63%, while transactions between $100 and $1,000 increased by +167.79%.

High-value transactions over $10,000 have mostly stagnated, indicating a lack of robust institutional participation.

Wallet concentration data shows that retail holdings increased by 12.93% last month, while whale holdings only grew by 4.38%, supporting this observation. Thus, the current market rebound appears to be primarily driven by retail.

Despite such large inflows, the lack of larger participants may limit the ability to maintain prices at high levels.

With surges in derivatives trading volume and bullish preferences, speculative activity is intensifying.

AVAX derivatives trading momentum is strong, with trading volume increasing by 21.64% to $962.72 million; open interest grew by 2.66% to $576.53 million. This growth indicates that traders' expectations are continually rising.

Data from Binance shows that currently 75.08% of traders are holding long positions, with a long-short ratio of 3.01. However, this bullish sentiment also comes with higher risks.

If AVAX fails to break through the $25 resistance level, investors holding high-leverage long positions may face rapid and severe liquidations. Therefore, while optimism is warranted, exercising caution is also wise—unverified high expectations could lead to a spike in volatility.

Can Avalanche's $240 billion RWA deal translate into real network growth?

Avalanche announced a $240 billion real estate tokenization project in collaboration with Bergen County, New Jersey, and other municipalities. The project aims to digitize over 370,000 property records, which will be the largest blockchain contract project in U.S. history.

While this deal has stirred positive sentiment within the ecosystem, actual on-chain adoption metrics tell a different story. In the past week, new addresses fell by -24.77%, and active addresses decreased by -18.58%.

Therefore, although this deal represents an important milestone for Avalanche in the RWA narrative, disappointing user growth suggests that positive sentiment has yet to manifest in tangible network activity.

Is AVAX ready to break out, or is it nearing exhaustion?

AVAX has shown encouraging signs, including inflows from whales, retail growth, and increasing interest in derivatives. Nevertheless, the key resistance level at $25 remains a significant obstacle for further price increases.

Without volume, user activity, or institutional support for validation, its upside potential remains uncertain. If the breakout fails, over-leveraged long positions could trigger a significant pullback, highlighting that AVAX's upcoming price movements will determine whether it can regain momentum or fall back into stagnation.