⏰ Altcoins on Snooze Mode — Is a Major Breakout Near?

Edwards does not discount altcoins despite his pessimism. He thinks a significant altcoin cycle is feasible if Bitcoin dominates.

The Speculation Index and Crypto Breadth models measure cryptocurrency strength and price movement, and Capriole found that just 5% are above their 200-day moving average. That's not optimistic.”

He likened things to late 2020, when Bitcoin rose from $10K to $60K before altcoins took off. Bitcoin had to convincingly break prior all-time highs before rotating. “You want Bitcoin to hit $140K while alts underperform. He said that the perfect configuration occurs when capital rotates downstream.

Edwards considers it a top indicator if cryptocurrencies surge prematurely while Bitcoin stays range bound. “That’s usually the last puff of air,” he cautioned.

Edwards questioned typical halves cycles beyond price action. ETFs, corporate treasuries, and sovereign players like Michael Saylor have reduced miners' influence on Bitcoin supply dynamics, he said. That four-year cycle is dead or diminished. Only 2–3% of supply comes from miners. Institutions drive today, he said.

This decreases the likelihood of 80% drawdowns and raises the danger of systemic leverage, especially from publicly listed Bitcoin-heavy enterprises. Although not an immediate problem, Edwards sees long-term risks if key players overextend.

He stressed that gold is a strategic hedge, not a substitute. Gold and Bitcoin have typically risen when the gold-to-equity ratio breaks over the 200-day moving average, which Capriole constantly watches.

Fed pivots, global liquidity expansions, and capital flow structural changes. We reacted to unpleasant news innately. You need to narrow it down to a few macro forces that move the market, and Bitcoin now has those working for it.

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