🧠 The key question: Is it more likely for BTC to drop to 100k now?

🔍 1. Where is the institutional interest (Smart Money)?

The 100,000 USDT region is a key psychological and technical level.

It is where:

There are a lot of retail stops positioned below, and

Whales/institutions like to seek liquidity.

🔁 The system “likes” to force the price into zones where retail gives up and institutional buys cheap.

📉 2. Current market behavior

BTC is making corrections with clean and orderly candles, it’s not a crash — it’s programmed liquidity.

Hourly and daily RSI close to the oversold zone.

Last strong support: 103,000

If lost with volume, the next stop is 101,800–100,000.

📌 Partial conclusion:

👉 It is very likely that the system seeks 100k to liquidate longs and accumulate liquidity.

🔥 3. What is more likely in the short term?

ScenarioCurrent ProbabilityCommentBTC holding at 103,000 and rising⬅️ 30%Only if buying volume comes in strongBTC dropping to 101,800–100,000✅ 60%It’s the natural stop hunt zoneBTC breaking directly upwards❌ 10%Unlikely without cleaning liquidity below

✅ Final verdict (strategy):

📉 It is more likely for BTC to go to the 100,000 region before rising.

This cleans stops, triggers forced sales, and gives a “cheap” entry for the big players.