#### 🌐 Executive Summary (Panoramic View)
- Natural correction: BTC at $105,300 (-1.5%) within a healthy range after peak of $112K, maintaining a market dominance of 62.13%.
- Institutional liquidity: Large sell flows (**-1,694 BTC**) balanced with institutional buying (**17,771 BTC**) – Strategic accumulation signal.
- Accelerating scarcity: 94.6% of the supply extracted (19.87M/21M BTC) with moderate trading volume (**2.87% of the market cap**).
- Core recommendation: Buy on pullbacks with a 12-24 month investment horizon.
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### 🔍 Three-dimensional Analysis (Technical/Fundamental/Behavioral)
#### 1. "Institutional Distribution" Analysis
- Major sell (-1,694 BTC): Profit-taking trades from funds/institutions after testing $112K.
- Major buy (17,771 BTC): Strong support at $105K from hedge funds and ETFs.
- "Rational Trading" Index: Volume/market cap ratio (**2.87%**) shows real liquidity with no excessive speculation.
#### 2. Critical Fundamental Indicators
- Annual inflation rate (1.8%): Less than half the issuance rate of the US dollar (**3.5%**) – Bitcoin as an "inflation hedge".
- ETF liquidity: +15,000 BTC monthly in US Bitcoin funds – Continuous buying pressure.
- Upcoming halving event (2025): Reward cut to 3.125 BTC – Additional liquidity scarcity.
#### 3. Market Sentiment Analysis
- Key support levels:
- $105,000 (psychological and institutional support).
- $100,000 (historical accumulation area).
- Critical resistances:
- $112,000 (recent peak).
- $120,000 (technical target after breakout).
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### 🎯 Customized Trading Strategies
#### For Long-term Investors (HODLers)
- Strategy: Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) at every 5-7% dip from the peak.
- Targets:
- $150,000 (2025).
- $250,000 (2026-2027).
- Risk management: Do not allocate more than 20% of the portfolio to Bitcoin.
#### For Swing Traders
- Entry points:
- $104,500 - $105,500 (with confirmation of rebound).
- $100,000 - $102,000 (cohesive accumulation area).
- Exit points:
- $110,000 - $111,500 (partial profit-taking).
- Trailing stop loss: below $99,500.
#### For Breakout Traders
- Entry conditions:
- Weekly close above $112,500 → Rise towards $120,000.
- Daily close below $100,000 → Drop to $92,000.
- Risk/reward ratio: 1:3 minimum.
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### 📅 2025-2026 Forecasts (3 Scenarios)
1. Base scenario (70%):
- Stability above $100K → Testing $120K Q3 2024 → $150K+ post-halving.
2. Bearish scenario (20%):
- Global economic recession → Correction to $85K before rebound.
3. Strong bullish scenario (10%):
- Wide adoption by governments → $200K by the end of 2026.
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### 💡 Investment Wisdom
> "Bitcoin is not a currency, but a monetary phenomenon. Traders profit from it, and investors own it."
> - Ideal strategy: 85% HODL + 15% trading.
#### 🚨 Final Warning:
- Avoid high leverage (>5x) amid current market volatility.
- Bitcoin is a long-term asset – do not be misled by daily volatility.
(Bitcoin dominance at 62% – signaling an accumulation phase for altcoins)