Will Bitcoin reach $1 million by 2035? These three hard logics are worth paying attention to!

1. Three Long-term Bullish Reasons

• More scarce than gold: After the 2024 halving, the annual inflation rate will be only 0.78%, and currently, 94.58% has been mined, leaving only 1.26 million coins. The U.S. monetary overissuance from 2020 to 2024 is 37%, while Bitcoin's market value has skyrocketed 12 times during the same period, demonstrating its visible anti-inflation capability.

• Institutions are hoarding: As of February 2025, MicroStrategy holds 499,000 coins (worth over $46 billion), and the Trump administration plans to include it in strategic reserves, potentially pushing the price to over $100,000 in 2025. Institutional funds are expected to flow in over $420 billion in the next two years.

• Technological transformation: By 2025, there will be over 16,400 Lightning Network nodes, transactions will be instant with fees of only $0.1, and 52.4% of mining will use clean energy, completely shedding the 'high energy consumption' label.

2. How to predict the price in 2035?

• User growth driver: If active users increase from 12 million in 2025 to 50 million in 2035, the price could reach $1.5 million (historically, users increased by 5 times, and prices rose over 100 times).

• Benchmarking gold share: Gold has a market value of $10 trillion; if Bitcoin occupies 20%, it would reach $95,000, and if it occupies 30%, it would reach $143,000.

• Halving cycle effect: The average price increase after the first four halvings is 43 times; the fifth halving in 2028 may help the price break $500,000, combined with the depreciation of the dollar, it may reach $1.2 million to $1.8 million by 2035.

3. Risk Reminders

• The EU's crypto regulations in 2025 may cause short-term volatility, but long-term benefits for compliance;

• Competing coins like Ethereum have lower costs, but Bitcoin's Lightning Network has already integrated with enterprise payments;

• Federal Reserve policies and global high debt (356% of GDP) may impact Bitcoin as well, and caution is needed regarding the correlation risk with U.S. stocks (correlation coefficient 0.72).

Conclusion: Bitcoin may be between $500,000 and $1.5 million in 2035, with key factors being institutional buying, technological upgrades, and fiat currency credibility. It is recommended to dollar-cost average below $78,000 (mining cost) to avoid all-in.

How much do you think Bitcoin can rise? Feel free to discuss in the comments and share with friends interested in cryptocurrencies! #比特币减半