#PCE数据来袭

📊 What is PCE? Why is it so important?


PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) is the 'Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index' published by the U.S. Department of Commerce and is one of the core indicators for measuring inflation levels.


PCE vs CPI:


Project CPI (Consumer Price Index) PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) focus on consumer spending behavior (fixed basket) actual sales prices of enterprises (reflecting dynamic adjustments) weight favors housing more balanced, closer to actual sensitivity easily affected by volatility in energy, food, etc. smoother, more suitable for judging long-term trends users market media often mention the inflation indicator most focused on by the Federal Reserve

➡️ Core PCE is data that excludes volatile food and energy prices, better reflecting the 'stickiness' of inflation.

📅 When is it published each month? Where to check the most authoritative information?

  • Release time: the last working day of each month (usually at 20:30 Beijing time on the last night of the month)

  • Publishing agency: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)


    Inquiry website：

    👉 BEA official website: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

🌍 What is the importance of PCE to the global financial market?


PCE is a key clue for global investors observing the Federal Reserve's next moves:


  • Once core PCE remains high, the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts or continue to maintain high interest rates.

  • Interest rate expectations directly affect:

    • U.S. Treasury prices (interest rates rise = bonds fall)

    • U.S. stock valuations (high interest rates suppress growth stocks)

    • Exchange rates (strong/weak dollar)

    • Prices of commodities like gold and oil


📌 On the day of the PCE release, if the data is 'shocking' or 'off the charts', it usually triggers severe fluctuations in the stock, bond, and currency markets, making it one of the risk events in the global market.

₿ What is the direct/indirect impact of PCE on the cryptocurrency space?

Although PCE is a traditional financial indicator, its impact on the cryptocurrency space is becoming increasingly direct:

📉 1. Increased market correlations

  • BTC has gradually evolved into a 'high Beta asset', strongly correlated with Federal Reserve policy expectations.

  • High PCE → delayed interest rate cut expectations → strong dollar → BTC under pressure in the short term.

  • Low PCE → market expectations turn dovish → US Treasury yields decline → funds flow back to high-risk assets, BTC and ETH rise.

🧠 2. Changes in investor psychology and style

  • An increasing number of traditional background funds (funds, trading institutions, RWA players) among crypto investors are keeping an eye on these macro data.

  • The 'macro sensitivity' of the crypto market has increased, no longer just a 'technical closed loop' as in the past.

📌 Summary view: Is there still room for interest rate cuts this year?

Combined:

  • The current core PCE is still around 2.8%;

  • Service inflation is sticky;

  • Additional tariffs may push another wave of imported inflation;

  • Federal Reserve officials are conservative, emphasizing 'more time is needed';


I judge that the hope for interest rate cuts this year is very slim, with at most one 'symbolic cut' by the end of the year, and only if the economy first encounters problems.

🧠 My judgment:

Interest rate cuts this year? The possibility is extremely low.

Unless:

  1. Sudden economic collapse in the U.S.;

  2. Employment data avalanche;

  3. Core PCE really falls below 2.3.

Otherwise, the Federal Reserve may only symbolically cut rates once by the end of the year, or even 'stay put until 2026'.

Stop fantasizing about a 'flood of liquidity' bull market; in this round, patience is more important than emotion.

$BTC