One, Judicial Roller Coaster: The Ultimate Game of Trump's Tariff War

Last night, the cryptocurrency world witnessed history - the dramatic reversal of the U.S. Federal Court's decision: first halting and then restoring Trump's global tariff policy, a real-life version of House of Cards. The essence of this judicial tug-of-war is the ultimate confrontation between executive and legislative powers:

  • Power Struggle: The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump overstepped his authority, while the White House appeals court quickly restored tariffs, highlighting the strong control of the executive branch over trade policy. The market generally expects that Trump may ultimately overturn this in the Supreme Court, a process that will continue to stir global financial markets.

  • Capital Shock: Repeated policy shifts directly impact risk assets, with Bitcoin plummeting 5% within 15 minutes after the news broke, dipping to the $95,000 range, and over $400 million in liquidations within 24 hours. Altcoins were also severely hit, with Uni (Uniswap) dropping from a high of $38 to $32, and Solana (SOL) experiencing a daily decline of 12%.

Two, Bitcoin Flash Crash: A Tug-of-War Under Capital Hunt

This pullback exposes three major risk logics:

  1. Policy-Sensitive Body: As 'digital gold', Bitcoin's pricing power is deeply tied to the U.S. political cycle. The expectation of a global trade war 2.0 triggered by Trump's tariff policy exacerbates market concerns about economic recession, leading capital to flow back from cryptocurrencies to dollar assets.

  2. Liquidity Black Hole: During the weekend when institutions are on holiday, liquidity in the cryptocurrency market plummeted, amplifying price volatility. Historical data shows that in similar events, Bitcoin's daily volatility can reach three times the usual level.

  3. Technical Breakdown: After Bitcoin fell below the key support level of $100,000, it triggered programmatic selling from quantitative trading systems, creating a negative feedback loop of 'downward - liquidation - accelerated decline'.

Three, Macro Noose: The Dual Tightening of PCE and U.S. Treasuries

The core PCE price index for April, announced tonight at 20:30, will be a key variable:

  • Data Game: If the year-on-year increase exceeds 3.1% (expected 2.9%), the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in June will soar to 70%, and Bitcoin may drop to the $90,000 level; if below 2.8%, it may trigger a rebound.

  • Shadow of U.S. Treasuries: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continues to rise to 4.8%, hitting a new high since 2023, putting pressure on the valuation of risk assets. Historical data shows that for every 0.5% increase in Treasury yields, the average monthly return of Bitcoin declines by 8%.

Four, Survival Guide: Three-Level Defense Strategy in Turbulent Times

(1) Bitcoin Faith Holdings: Using Time to Exchange Space

  • Institutional Endorsement: Asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity continue to increase their holdings in Bitcoin spot ETFs, with Grayscale's GBTC premium rate rebounding to 12%, indicating that long-term capital is still positioning itself.

  • Operational Iron Rule: Increase positions in batches when falling below $92,000, increase total positions by 10% for every 5% drop, strictly avoid chasing highs and cutting losses.

(2) Altcoin Guerrilla Warfare: The Life-and-Death Line of Buying High and Selling Low

  • Position Control: Reduce altcoin positions to within 20%, focusing on policy-benefiting varieties (like XRP, SOL) and projects with technical breakthroughs (like Starknet).

  • Arbitrage Techniques: Taking Uni as an example, sell 50% of the position when the price breaks above $35, and buy back when it falls below $30, using volatility to profit from the price difference.

(3) Meme Coin Speculation: Dancing on the Edge of a Knife

  • Primary Market Opportunity: Pay attention to the $MELANIA (Melania Coin) launched by the Trump family, its community popularity has surpassed PEPE, with a first-day increase of 300%.

  • Risk Control Rules: Single investment not exceeding $500, set a 20% stop-loss line, lock in profit target at 500% and take profits immediately, avoid becoming a 'bag holder'.


Conclusion: The cryptocurrency market in 2025 is undergoing a triple baptism of policy turbulence + macro tightening + technological iteration. The short-term volatility of Bitcoin cannot obscure its long-term value, while the high elasticity of altcoins is a 'double-edged sword' in turbulent times. In this war without gunpowder, patience, discipline, and position management will become the ultimate survival rule. As the PCE data is revealed tonight, it may mark the start of a new round of wealth distribution!

#加密市场回调 #美国加征关税 $BTC $ETH