Is the bull market still on?

This round of frenzied surge starting from $74,500 has accumulated a 50% increase without a single day showing an effective pullback of over 8%, which violates market norms and hides fatal risks.

Historical data reveals that the average pullback depth after seven consecutive weekly gains in the past decade has reached 23%. The current extreme RSI daily value of 89 indicates the urgency of restoring balance, as a true long-term bull market requires a deep correction to unload the leverage burden.

Smart capital has already built a defensive line at $108,300, where institutions like BlackRock have gathered a cost line of 500,000 bitcoins. This is also the critical point for a $3.7 billion long leverage explosion. If the price can break through this steel dam and drop to the golden pit of $98,500-$101,800, it will trigger a blood-cleansing programmatic trading, providing $20 billion-level fuel for the next sprint. At that time, the odds advantage for mid-term long positions will appear, just like the epic counterattack of 300% that began after a 40% deep squat in May 2017.

The K-wave cycle is sending out warnings; the 14th month after the halving has always been a nest of storms, just as Bitcoin stands at the eye of the storm today. When the greed index breaks 85 and exchange contract positions soar to a peak of $38 billion, the market has prepared the altar for the waterfall. But remember, every time there’s a deep pit that makes retail investors' hearts bleed, it is ultimately verified as a launchpad toward the stars and the sea. Those who take in the bloody chips in panic will eventually wear the crown of wealth when Bitcoin breaks $180,000.

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