Capital inflow ≠ Price increase: Deconstructing Ethereum's pricing logic
The price of Ethereum is driven by multiple factors, and a single indicator cannot dominate the trend.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market has ample liquidity, and the scale of off-chain capital pools far exceeds on-chain FTF data. Even when there is capital inflow, it will be quickly absorbed by market depth, making it difficult to form effective momentum.
Cross-exchange arbitrage robots monitor price deviations in real time. Once FTF inflow triggers a local premium, arbitrage capital will immediately short the overvalued platform, using "brick-moving" to eliminate the price difference.
External variables such as Federal Reserve policies, ETF approvals, and regulatory attitudes have a much greater weight on Ethereum's pricing than capital flow. For instance, when expectations for interest rate cuts rise, capital inflow may be viewed as a "lagging indicator" rather than a leading signal.
FTF data only accounts for changes in exchange wallets and cannot capture key information such as DeFi liquidity pool funds and derivative positions. Whales may enter through over-the-counter trading to avoid FTF statistical measures.
FTF inflow is essentially a "reflection of market sentiment," not a price engine. In a cryptocurrency market dominated by excess liquidity and algorithmic trading, one must be wary of "single-factor superstition"—true turning points in trends often arise at moments of resonance between macro variables and on-chain behavior.
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