Many people say losing money is due to insufficient understanding. There is indeed a difference in understanding between people, but is there a threshold for acquiring understanding? I believe there isn't. If I lack understanding, my approach would be to directly spend money to consult with those who have succeeded. I would ask 10 people, and if their answers are consistent, then that answer must be the industry truth, and I would follow that truth in my operations.
Let me state the conclusion first: making money in the crypto space relies on luck, don't talk about high and mighty understanding. If you can realize that making money in the crypto space depends on luck, I can't say you'll make a lot of money, but I can say you'll never lose a lot of money again. Luck accounts for 99%, while understanding + capital only accounts for 1%. Because I have personally witnessed people without understanding and with little capital making big money through luck.
The luck referred to here is essentially a trend. For example, no matter how high your understanding or how much capital you have, in a bear market environment, you can't make money regardless of what you play. Because the market is stagnant, without volatility, there is no profit. Relying on holding coins, no matter how much money or understanding you have, in a bear market, it's all about falling more and rising less; no matter how you hold, you won't make money. Relying on trading, options, grids, or quant, you can hardly make money, with profits being negligible.
Making big money in the crypto space relies on luck. If you hoard coins hard during a bear market for three years, and in the fourth year, a bull market comes along and suddenly increases by 5-10 times, isn't that luck? Because people cannot control the market; a bull market is a form of luck. When luck arrives, if you're in the right position, you'll be carried along.
If someone believes they make money based on their skills, they definitely won't earn much in the crypto space. Even those high-leverage contract traders who make a million dollars in a month are also relying on luck; their strategies just happen to align with market rhythms. It's important to know that there are countless strategies running at the same time, while others lose more and gain less, their strategy just happened to work out. Once the market rhythm changes, they will also lose money.
If you don't believe it, you can conduct an experiment: go to Binance for simulated trading, starting with 10,000 USDT, choose the person with the highest returns over 30 days, and observe how the copy trading performs over 1-3 months. I followed 7 people, and 5 of them lost money. What is this if not luck?
A person's greatest understanding is knowing when luck arrives; they should enter when luck comes and exit when it fades. Capital is merely a means of production, not a decisive factor. Everyone has capital, but not everyone can make money. With the ability to identify luck, combined with luck and capital, when all three align beautifully, you should be able to make money.
What I've said so much is to tell you: don't rely on skills to make money; the crypto space relies on luck. Wherever capital flows, which sectors are growing, indicates where luck is; you should go there and wait for luck. For instance, what's the point of guarding inscriptions now? Luck has come and gone. Waiting there for its return is just foolish gambling, right? I still see people asking if they should buy EOS; luck has left it for 8 years, and you still want to buy. No matter how much capital you have or how good your trading skills are, can you make money? The real skill is to wait until you see luck returning before you participate.
Luck is something you wait for. For example, for altcoins to skyrocket, Bitcoin's market cap must first continue to decline, and Bitcoin must not surge; at this point, you recognize that luck for altcoins has arrived, and by participating, you end up profiting—that's the result of luck. If you rush in without any signs of a launch, and when it drops, you average down until it finally skyrockets, that falls under macro luck in the industry. You firmly believe that meme coins have a future and that there will be a bull market ahead, rather than recognizing the luck that you've identified. But how many people have that kind of determination? Moreover, the premise of doing this is that you can only allocate a portion of your position; the main position always stays in BTC. From a macro perspective, knowing that BTC won't go to zero, if it drops, it's just a matter of waiting. But giving up allocation and directly rushing into meme coins will ultimately lead to disastrous losses.
I know a boss who bought 40 million yuan worth of BTC, sold it all for less than 90,000, and didn't make much money. Now someone is telling him he can make money with quantitative strategies, and he is very regretful for missing the subsequent rise of BTC. That person said quantitative strategies can yield an annualized return of 50-100%, but didn't mention the prerequisites. He asked me if I could do it, and I said that quant is just a strategy algorithm that uses programs to replace human operations to avoid emotional influences; without market trends, you can't make money. Handing your money to someone else means you have to share 25% of the profits; if there's a loss, they don't bear it, and if there's a profit, they take 25%. This is a superstition in technology while ignoring the more important fact that market luck is crucial. This doesn't even account for the risk to the principal.
Those who make money in the crypto space are crazy about showcasing their profits and account balances, claiming their skills are excellent and their analysis is impressive; this is not the truth, it's just the result of luck, all nonsense. If you truly believe it, you'll definitely suffer losses. They never say that relying on luck isn't real skill; if they say it's just luck, then that's the truth.
I write this to fundamentally change your worldview about the crypto space: don't easily think that others' trading skills are impressive. The fundamental reason for making money in the crypto space is luck; only skilled individuals can recognize where luck lies and optimize strategies based on that luck to go further. They have experience and can always seize opportunities, accumulating wealth through waves of market trends.$BTC
