$BTC Falls below $106,000, What’s next?
Technical analysis and short-term forecast based on the $BTC chart (4-hour time frame):
Current Market Overview
Current Price: $105,702.97
24h Change: -2.34%
24h High/Low: $108,891.91 / $104,600.50
Volume: Moderate-to-high (21,199.62 BTC)
Chart & Indicator Analysis
Price Action
Trend: Downtrend with recent lower highs and lower lows.
Support: Strong bounce from $104,600.50, suggesting short-term support around that level.
Resistance: Immediate resistance at $105,855, then $107,478 and $109,101 above.
The candlesticks show increased selling pressure, especially the long red candles breaking past previous support levels.
Volume
Slight increase in sell volume on the last few candles, confirming the strength of the down move.
The most recent green candle has lower volume, suggesting buying momentum is weak.
Moving Averages (MA)
MA(5): 3,498
MA(10): 3,313
→ The short-term MA is crossing below the longer-term MA, confirming bearish momentum.
MACD
DIF: -690.82
DEA: -346.65
MACD Line: -344.17
→ Deep in negative territory with a bearish crossover already occurred. Momentum is still favouring short sellers.
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
RSI(7): 28.62 (Oversold)
RSI(12): 34.10
RSI(24): 42.17
→ Short-term RSI is in oversold territory, suggesting a potential bounce or short-term relief rally, but not a full reversal yet.
Short-Term Forecast (Next 24–72 Hours)
Bias: Bearish with potential relief bounce
Likely scenario:
BTC may retest $105,855 as resistance.
If it fails to break above convincingly, expect a revisit of $104,600 or lower.
Any close below $104,200 could accelerate a drop toward $102,000–103,000 range.
Bullish invalidation:
If BTC closes above $107,500, it may signal a short-term trend reversal.
Strategy Suggestion:
Wait for confirmation — only consider buying on confirmation of support holding (e.g., bounce with strong green volume at $104,600).
For now, it’s a risky long unless you’re scalping oversold bounces.
More downside possible if $104,600 fails to hold.