Arthur Hayes: ETH may double to $5000 this year, reaching a new historical high —

A typical market psychology game logic!

I have always emphasized:

As long as the fundamentals of Ethereum do not change, and as long as the market FUD becomes more intense, Ethereum remains an excellent asset!

Why are there ups and downs?

It’s simply because fools are buying and fools are selling.

The market has reflexivity; don't pay attention to what others say, learn to focus only on the current possible opportunities and the changing fundamentals —

How to view this wave of ETH rebound opportunity?

1️⃣ Short-term sentiment low + ETF favorable catalyst + capital rotation game, ETH may become the representative of the next phase of "catch-up".

2️⃣ If BTC stabilizes above 70K, it is highly probable that ETH will rise to 4,000.

3️⃣ Whether it can break the historical high ($4,878) depends on: whether the ETF really brings substantial capital inflow, whether the market is willing to re-establish the long-term narrative of ETH, and under the gradual implementation of Proto-Danksharding / L2 expansion technology, RWA and the real economy are likely to choose Ethereum.

Sentiment can be manipulated; market cycles often favor assets that rebound from sentiment lows, let’s wait and see.

This is the most typical manifestation of reflexivity: expectation → behavior → reality is changed → reinforcement of expectation.

Investment is not about waiting for value to return, but about waiting for a reversal of cognition —

Reflexivity is that collective cognitive reversal carnival.