Investment master Howard Marks from the United States also emphasizes in (The Most Important Thing in Investing) that investors need to learn and apply second-level thinking, which involves seeing the motivations behind the logic and the essence behind the phenomena.
First-level thinking says: This is a good company, let's buy the stock. Second-level thinking says: This is a good company, but everyone thinks it's a good company, therefore it's not a good company, the stock price is too high.
Let's sell the stock.
First-level thinking says: The company is facing sluggish growth and increased inflation, let's sell the stock.
Second-level thinking says: The company's outlook is terrible, but if everyone panics and sells the stock, buy it.
First-level thinking is relatively simple: the economy is bad, the stock market is down, to avoid greater losses, we should sell the stock. Second-level thinking is that the overall market valuation is being suppressed by the economic trend, even some highly certain stocks have seen significant declines, and the value is beginning to stand out. We need to prepare funds for a more severe economic crisis and lower stock prices.
I have read this passage many times and thought about it for a long time. The investment industry is easy to enter but difficult to do well. Munger once said that investing is not simple; those who think investing is simple are fools. There is no method in investing that applies universally; the environment is uncontrollable, and human emotions are uncontrollable. If too many people adopt a method, its effectiveness will decrease accordingly. Investing is a science with certain rules, but it is also an art that requires extraordinary insight.
First-level thinking is often simple and shallow, almost everyone can achieve it, while second-level thinking is clearly deeper, and few can accomplish it.
#第二层思维 #交易心理学 #投资智慧 #BNB
