According to everyone's understanding, what stage do you think the cryptocurrency market is currently in?
A classic bull market consists of three major waves. Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum have completed two waves, while altcoins have officially only completed one wave, meaning the bull market has officially started. There is still a significant wave to come, and many worthless coins haven't even started their first wave; they typically only have one to two major movements during a bull market.
The relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins: in the third major bull market of 2017, Bitcoin and altcoins peaked in December, while Ethereum and altcoins peaked a month later. Many altcoins were famous for the 94 crash + peak, meaning they peaked in early September.
In the fourth major bull market of 2021, both Bitcoin and Ethereum peaked in November, with a small number of altcoins peaking in February, and many peaking during the crash in May.
In the second major bull market of 2013, Bitcoin peaked in November, at which time there was no Ethereum, only Bitcoin and altcoins. The altcoins from that time, to this day, only Ripple and Litecoin are still alive.
Regarding mid-term corrections, during the 2013 bull market, there was one instance where it got too crazy, leading to an 80% crash in just a few days; altcoins certainly returned home then.
In the 2017 bull market, Bitcoin corrected several times, with the most significant correction being only 40%. The 94 crash was a major crash, with 90% being quite normal. Ethereum's correction during that time was not severe; the major correction in the second half of 2016 saw Ethereum drop significantly, let alone altcoins, which took until December to bottom after reaching a high in June.
In the 2021 bull market, despite Bitcoin and Ethereum having only minor corrections in September 2020 that didn't last long, altcoins adjusted for several months with significant corrections, even while Bitcoin was reaching new highs. Then there was the 519 crash +, which only corrected for just over two months, but altcoins again experienced deep corrections, with Bitcoin suffering more than a halving.
In the 2025 bull market, Bitcoin and Ethereum had only mild declines in mid-2024, but altcoins have already undergone significant corrections. History has never changed; in the fourth quarter, the second major wave will rise sharply again, and then altcoins will undergo deep corrections, with many peaking again.
In the first bull market, Bitcoin surged for a year, taking two and a half years from inception to peak; the second bull market took two years and one month from bottom to peak; the third bull market took two years and eleven months from bottom to peak; the fourth bull market is the same as the third; and for the fifth bull market, you can decide how long it will take.
