💭 Thoughts aloud: is BTC really worth $200k, $500k, or $1M?
⚠️ Not financial advice, just reflections. If you disagree - write, we'll discuss.
Today, the opinion that bitcoin will be worth $200,000 or even $1,000,000 is becoming more common.
A beautiful idea. But let's realistically assess - how feasible is this?
📊 Current figures (May 2025):
💰 Total cryptocurrency capitalization: ~3.43 trillion $
🟠 BTC capitalization: ~2.16 trillion $
📈 BTC dominance: ~63%
🧱 Number of mined BTC: ~19.87 million, but considering losses, the real amount in circulation is less
📈 BTC at $200,000:
BTC cap: ~4.17 trillion $
Total crypto cap at 60% dominance: ~6.95 trillion $
🧠 We need +3.5 trillion $ of new money - that's double the current volume.
🧮 BTC at $500,000:
BTC cap: ~10.4 trillion $
Total crypto cap: ~17.3 trillion $
🧠 The market needs to grow almost 5 times.
🧠 BTC at $1,000,000:
BTC cap: ~20.85 trillion $
Total crypto cap: ~34.75 trillion $
🧠 This is almost the entire US stock market (52 trillion $). Sounds ambitious? You bet.
🤔 Where does all this money come from?
💼 Investment funds are already in the market
🏦 Central banks - are not entering the market
🧍♂️ Retail is worn out after 2022
Either a total disappearance of altcoins and BTC dominance of 90%+, or a massive outflow from stock markets.
🎬 And a bit of philosophy
For those who watched 'The Big Short' - remember 2008:
Then - the mortgage bubble, now - maybe crypto.
Any bubble grows on euphoria. And it bursts - suddenly.
What will happen when the panic starts and people begin to sell?
🧩 Conclusion
BTC at 200k - possible if the market doubles
BTC at 500k and above - only if the global economy changes
But for now, it's more hope than reality
📉 Remember: the market has absorbed $3.5 trillion over 14 years.
And to reach 200k, we need to inject the same amount - right now.
Write if you want to discuss in more detail.
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