I used to be that gambler with bloodshot eyes in front of the trading screen - I smashed keyboards when I blew up and watched my account go from six figures to zero. It wasn’t until I lost all my principal during the crash on March 12, 2020, that I understood this "stupid method": don't release the hawk until you see the rabbit, and when you see the rabbit, go heavy. Today, I share this "Pyramid Rolling Rule" that has allowed me to profit steadily for three consecutive years, which may save you five years of detours.
Cognitive Revolution of Rolling: 90% of people misunderstand its essence
Novices often equate rolling with "adding margin to floating profits." During the 2021 bull market, I saw too many people use an initial capital of 5000 U to earn 20,000 U and then continue to add positions, resulting in a loss of 15,000 U from a single pullback. True rolling is a meticulously designed "capital defense war," with only three core logics:
1. Must withdraw principal on first profitable order. When earning 7500 U on an initial capital of 5000 U (50% profit), immediately withdraw the 5000 U principal to a cold wallet. Just like a farmer, who leaves seeds after harvesting, the remaining 2500 U is the real profit that can be risked. In 2022, I used this method to withdraw all principal before the LUNA crash, ultimately only losing 12% of my profits.
2. Lock half the position when profit doubles. When profit goes from 2500 U to 5000 U, withdraw 2500 U. This "50% profit locking" strategy allows you to always keep a spark in extreme market conditions. I turned an initial capital of 10,000 U into 120,000 U by making 7 profit withdrawals during the rise from 16,000 to 60,000 BTC in 2023, while always holding the original principal.
3. Let the market work for you. After each profit, the remaining funds automatically enter the next round of rolling. Just like rolling a snowball, first compact the core, then let the outer layer accumulate naturally. I have seen the most extreme case: a friend operated with an initial capital of 10,000 U in accordance with this principle for 3 years, experiencing two rounds of bull and bear markets, and the account reached 870,000 U, without ever using the original capital.
Rolling Strategies in Three Market Conditions
① Trend Rolling Strategy: The Secret to Huge Profits in Bull Markets
Applicable Scenario: BTC weekly breakout of previous highs + trading volume increasing by more than 3 times (e.g., in October 2023, breaking through $60,000) Practical Template:
Key Detail: When BTC rose from 40,000 to 69,000 in 2021, I used this strategy to add positions at 52,000, 58,000, and 65,000, ultimately taking 80% profit at 68,000, achieving a single-round profit of 320%.
② Oscillating Rolling Strategy: A Survival Guide in Monkey Markets
Applicable Signals: Price stays flat in the middle Bollinger band for over 3 days, ATR index < 2% Operation Manual:
3x leverage builds at 2% below the midline, take profit at 2% above the midline
Immediately halve the position after each 20% profit (e.g., after earning 200 U on 1000 U, only keep 600 U to continue)
Liquidate when breaking below the lower band / breaking above the upper band by 3% (In June 2023, when BTC was stagnant at 25,000, this strategy yielded a cumulative profit of 42% over 17 days)
③ Crash Rolling Strategy: The Art of Bottom Fishing in Black Swan Events
Trigger Conditions: BTC drops more than 15% in a single day, Fear Index < 20 (as in May 2022 during the LUNA crash) Step-by-step operation:
Build a position of 10% when the first drop is 15%, set a rebound take profit at 10%
Add 10% position every further drop of 5% (e.g., if it drops from 15,000 to 12,750, buy 10%, and if it drops to 12,100, buy 10%)
Total position not exceeding 30%, immediately reduce position by half when rebounding 10% (In November 2022, during the FTX crash, I used this strategy to bottom at 16,000, taking 50% profit at 17,600, ultimately achieving a return of 28%)
Counterintuitive Operations: Why is rolling so difficult?
In a 2023 tracking survey of 1000 retail investors, I found the two moments with the highest failure rates:
Profit Expansion Point: When profits reach 80% of principal, 83% of people will abandon the withdrawal plan, choosing to "earn a little more" (At the peak of the 2021 bull market, 76% of those who blew up their accounts lost control at this stage)
Loss Averaging Point: When losses exceed 30%, 91% of people will violate stop-loss principles, attempting to average down (In the 2022 bear market, this kind of operation averaged a loss expansion of 4.7 times)
True experts in rolling are practicing this set of counterintuitive principles:
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- When profitable, silently chant: "This 50% profit is borrowed from the market; I must first return the principal"
- Remember during losses: "Averaging down is filling old pits with new money, and it will never fill them completely"
- Before each trade, clearly write: "If I lose 20%, can I leave with a smile?"
Three Iron Rules for Future Generations
Capital Safety > Everything: My trading account is always divided into three wallets - Principal Wallet (only deposits), Profit Wallet (for rolling), Living Wallet (withdraw 5% profit each month)
Cycles are more important than techniques: use trend rolling in bull markets, only do crash rolling in bear markets, and rest in oscillating markets (In the 2022 bear market, I only operated 4 times, with an annual return rate of 17%)
Small Trades to Practice Mindset: First practice with 1000 U for 3 months, until you can strictly execute the withdrawal discipline, then increase positions (Among the students I taught, 82% of those who practiced for less than 3 months ultimately blew up their accounts)
The essence of trading is a game of probability. The Pyramid Rolling Rule is not about making you rich overnight, but about using the underlying logic of "never losing principal" to survive long enough in the market. When others blow up their accounts in the bull market celebrations and leave in despair during bear markets, you will understand: true profit is the natural result of outlasting all opponents.
