1. Bearish Breakdown – "Crash Mode" (High Risk)
Trigger: $ETH
breaks below $2650
Potential Drop Zones:
$2600–2620 – Retail investor psychological support
Possible short-lived rebound
$2550–2580 – Institutional buy zone
May not hold if panic selling sets in
⚠️ Note: Avoid trying to "bottom-fish" here — risk of catching falling knives is high.
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2. Sideways Rebound – "Grinding Market" (Neutral/Bearish)
Trigger: $ETH stabilizes above $2680 (holds for 2+ hours)
Resistance Levels:
$2700–2720 – Short-term selling pressure zone
$2750 – Major resistance (previous trap zone, hard to break)
⚠️ Note: This rebound might be a bull trap. If there's no follow-through, exit quickly.
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3. Unexpected Crash – "Black Swan Event" (Low Probability)
Possible Triggers:
Mt. Gox moves over 100,000 BTC, triggering mass panic
US SEC intensifies crackdown on stablecoins (e.g., USDT)
Impact: ETH could plunge below $2500 rapidly.
⚠️ Note: Rare event, but essential to set stop-losses if holding large positions.
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🧰 Quick Trading Guide
📉 Short Strategy (Bearish Play)
Entry Zone: Around $2660–2680 – can try light short (e.g., 10% position)
Stop Loss: Immediate exit above $2700
Take Profit: Gradually close at $2600–2630 – don’t overstay
📈 Long Strategy (Bullish Play)
Aggressive Entry: Around $2550 (small 5% position),
→ Stop loss: $2500
Safer Entry: After clean breakout and retest of $2750,
→ Buy on pullback to $2700,
→ Stop loss: $2680
→ Target: $2800
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🧠 Crow's Final Thoughts
> "The market is like a tightrope walker — unsteady above, dangerous below."
Key Levels: Watch $2650 and $2680 closely
→ Below $2650 = reduce positions
→ Above $2680 = cautious long
Stay Defensive:
→ Limit exposure to max 30% of total capital
→ Always have enough reserves to survive a black swan
Mindset Reminder:
"The market punishes stubbornness. Be flexible. Stay alive, fight another day."
