In the cryptocurrency circle, if you want to turn 10,000 into 12 million, there is only one way; if you want to do it quickly, that is to roll over your positions.
The most risky method should also be divided into three parts. That is to say, you should give yourself at least three chances.
For example, if the total account funds amount to 200,000, the client allows you to lose a maximum of 20%, that is, 40,000, then I suggest your most risky loss plan should be: the first time 10,000, the second time 10,000, the third time 20,000. I believe this loss plan has a certain rationality. Because if you get one right in three tries, you can either profit or say you can continue to survive in the market. Not being kicked out of the market itself is a form of success and offers a chance to win.
2. Grasp the overall market trend. The trend is much more difficult to navigate than oscillation because the trend involves chasing rises and cutting losses, requiring steadfastness in holding positions, while buying high and selling low aligns more closely with human nature. Trading is about how much it aligns with human nature, and the more it does, the less money you will make; it is precisely because it is difficult to navigate that it can be profitable. In a rising trend, any violent pullback should prompt you to go long. Do you remember what I said about probability? So, if you’re not on the bus or have gotten off, wait patiently for a 10-20% drop; be bold and go long.
3. Set specific profit-taking and stop-loss targets. Profit-taking and stop-loss can be said to be the key to determining whether one can profit. In several trades, we must ensure that total profits exceed total losses. Achieving this is not difficult; just adhere to the following points: ① Each stop loss ≤ 5% of total capital; ② Each profit > 5% of total capital; ③ Total trading win rate > 50%. If the above requirements are met (profit-loss ratio greater than 1 and win rate greater than 50%), profits can be realized. Of course, it is also possible to have a high profit-loss ratio with a low win rate, or a low profit-loss ratio with a high win rate. Anyway, as long as total profit is positive, it’s sufficient, where total profit = initial capital × (average profit × win rate - average loss × loss rate).
4. Remember not to overtrade frequently. Since BTC perpetual contracts trade 24/7, many novices operate daily, almost trading every day in a month with 22 trading days. It is said: if you walk by the river often, how can you not get your shoes wet? The more you operate, the more likely you are to make mistakes; after making mistakes, your mindset can deteriorate. Once your mindset deteriorates, you may act impulsively, choosing 'revenge' trading: possibly going against the trend, possibly over-leveraging. This can lead to one mistake after another, easily causing significant losses on paper, which may take years to recover.
Key points to note when rolling positions:
1. Sufficient patience; the profits from rolling positions can be enormous, as long as you can roll successfully a few times, you can earn at least millions, so you should not roll easily; you need to find high-certainty opportunities.
2. High-certainty opportunities refer to a situation where there is a sharp decline followed by sideways consolidation, and then an upward breakout; at this point, the probability of following the trend is very high. You need to identify the point of trend reversal and get on board right from the start.
3. Only roll long positions, do not take short positions.
I will publicly share my ten years of trading experience, today, I will unreservedly analyze the iron laws and trading strategies of trading cryptocurrencies that have weathered the storms of the market, hoping to illuminate the path for everyone in their investment journey in the cryptocurrency circle, helping everyone to avoid detours and significantly increase their chances of profit.
If investors can strictly implement the above-mentioned iron rules of trading cryptocurrencies and flexibly apply them in conjunction with market realities, they will surely help everyone avoid common investment traps and significantly increase their opportunities for profit in the cryptocurrency market.
Can trading digital currencies short-term be profitable?
Many people say that short-term trading in cryptocurrencies does not make money; in reality, this is mainly because short-term trading requires a certain amount of time for market monitoring and a lot of review work. Additionally, in the cryptocurrency circle, it involves two-way trading fees, meaning that you incur transaction costs both when buying and selling. In this case, we need to consider the incurred costs before calculating returns.
In short-term trading, if the market judgment is inaccurate, it is easy to turn short-term positions into medium- to long-term ones, or even develop a belief. The vast majority of people do not have systematic trading habits; when they trade, they find it hard to strictly adhere to their own habits and withdraw as soon as they make a return. Not so, in short-term trading, there are two ways to ensure we can exit safely.
a. We should use cryptocurrency trading bots for trading, executing automatically 24 hours a day.
b. Set strict buying and selling principles for yourself; sell immediately when profits reach 30%, and buy in when losses reach 30%. Manual operation must be strictly enforced; as long as you follow the trading rules, we will essentially not be put in a passive or trapped situation. Of course, this applies equally to spot and contracts; both swing trading and contracts must be strictly executed, and we must establish our own trading system.
How to trade short-term with digital currencies?
1. Before placing an order, do not have any subjective or artificial sense of direction. For every entry into the market, set a stop-loss point or stop-loss condition 'in advance'. Do not be concerned with profits or losses or the highs and lows of prices when entering or exiting the market. For 'ultra-short' trades, only select the 'hottest varieties' that have the largest trading volume in recent days, increasing open interest, and are leading in an uptrend or leading in a downtrend. Do not consider or trade varieties without significant trading volume.
2. For 'ultra-short' trades, only look at real-time charts, 1 or 3-minute charts, buy/sell orders, trading volume, and order execution situations (do not look at any other technical indicators, and do not care about price levels).
3. The moving average parameters for the real-time chart are; the moving average parameters for the 1 or 3-minute chart are 5 or 55, 113, and the volume line is 5, 34. Additionally, adjustments can be made based on different varieties.
4. Look at real-time charts and grasp the current trends:
(1) When the average price line (yellow) is tilted upward, and the price line (white) is above the average price line, and each wave is higher than the previous one, it indicates that the current market is in an uptrend. We will primarily go long (only when the price line deviates too much from the average price line can we consider shorting, or abandon shorting opportunities in an uptrend).
(2) When the average price line is tilted downward, the price line is below the average price line, and each wave is lower than the previous one, indicating that the current market is in a downtrend. We will primarily go short (only when the price line deviates too much from the average price line should we consider going long, or abandon long opportunities in a downtrend).
(3) When the average price line is horizontal, and the price line crosses above and below the average price line, it indicates that the current market is in consolidation or oscillation; do not enter the market, or trade both long and short.
(4) When you see the price line crossing above the average price line, go long (or close short positions to go long); when it crosses below the average price line, go short (or close long positions to go short). At the moment of 'crossing', it is best to have 1 or 3-minute charts, order execution situations, and trading volume align.
5. Specific entry and exit points should be identified by looking at 1 or 3-minute charts and observing order execution situations:
(1) When the real-time chart shows an 'uptrend', be patient and wait for the 1 or 3-minute chart to show 'the previous bar is a bearish K-line, flipping to the next bar just turned into a bullish K-line' or 'when the bearish K-line flips to bullish and the three moving averages turn upward', decisively enter the market to go long. At this time, sell orders are continuously consumed by buy orders, and even if there are downward sell orders, they are not significant or cannot persist.
(2) When the real-time chart shows a 'downtrend' (going short is opposite to going long, which is not elaborated here).
(3) Close long positions. If you entered the market when the first 3-minute bearish K-line flipped to a bullish K-line, prepare to close your position immediately. The timing for closing is: as long as it is profitable, close it, or if the increase of the bullish K-line is smaller than the previous one, or if there is a long upper shadow, or if there have been two consecutive bullish K-lines over 3 minutes, or if sell orders suddenly increase above, or if large sell orders are actively consuming while buy orders decrease, or if the first bullish K-line just flipped to a bearish K-line, or if the bullish flip to bearish occurred while the three moving averages turned downward. At this time, decisively close long positions.
(4) Close short positions (which is exactly the opposite of closing long positions).
(5) When the real-time chart shows 'oscillation', if the 3-minute chart shows a bearish flip to a bullish signal and the three moving averages turn upward, go long; conversely, if there is a bullish flip to a bearish signal and the three moving averages turn downward, go short.
Any trader who can ultimately make money is a trend trader!
There was a time when I was also enthusiastic, making trading plans early and writing trading insights late. Winning brought joy and excitement, while losing brought sadness and embarrassment. I once made a fortune during large one-sided moves, unable to sleep for days, and I have also simmered slowly in warm water, resulting in significant damage to my vitality, being overly cautious.
Having experienced peaks and troughs, basked in the sunlight, and witnessed the bright moon, regardless of people gathering or scattering, regardless of heights and distances, I will be there, neither too big nor too small, and no one knows.
Seeing through human nature and uncovering its essence, there is not much superficial glamour that can sway emotions; gradually expanding my profits and quietly telling many real stories in the futures industry that few people know about.
These stories have a starting point but may not have an endpoint. These stories happened in the past, are real, and evoke deep emotions, but they will also happen in the future, as human nature is difficult to change, and it is hard to find new things under the sun. The 80/20 rule existed in the past, is being played out now, and will still be scheduled for the future.
I am a stable profit-making capital manager, just acting as everyone’s eyes because I am deeply embedded in the core circle of futures investment. Using the phrase 'on the cusp of the storm' is not exaggerated.
As long as everyone is interested in knowing certain matters, I will say as much as I can. As for whether what I say is true, those who have been in the circle know it in their hearts; the wise see clearly, and the pure know themselves; this information is quite significant for investors who are struggling and unable to grasp the essence.
In these years, I have earned money from the market, but I understand in my heart that it is all funds from ordinary investors. I cannot make any significant contributions, but I am willing to share my years of experience and insights with investors as a form of return.
Expectations are good, but futures investment cannot be fully understood overnight. My suggestion is to not invest any money at first. If you really want to excel in futures investment, you need to patiently do your homework before entering. The best approach is to have a good mentor guide you, leading you to enter and improve quickly, which can save you four or five years of exploration time.
First, do not invest a single penny. Because beginners are too unfamiliar with this, any slight unfamiliarity and oversight may lead to losses, and it may also cause emotional fluctuations, resulting in even greater losses.
Avoiding large-scale single losses and avoiding continuous small losses is an important aspect of risk control in futures investment.
Secondly, feel and understand. You can open a demo account and familiarize yourself with various environments and mindsets in futures trading through the operations of the demo account. This is a process that takes time. This process can help you gradually become less unfamiliar with many aspects of futures and lay a good foundation for further trading in the future.
Again, determine your basic operational strategy and conduct exploratory investments with very small amounts of capital, akin to throwing stones to ask for directions. From your personal investment strategy perspective, unfamiliarity means risk; making exploratory investments that do not affect the overall situation under unclear risk conditions is a wise move.
There are many ways to profit, but only a long-term, stable, and relatively ideal profit model can be considered genuine. If this characteristic is not reflected, profits and losses will alternate, sometimes peaking and sometimes dipping, ultimately resulting in minimal benefits.
After clarifying this concept, I can recall many successful investors I slightly know. They have different styles: some profit by relying on technical indicators (with good psychological quality and long-term persistence), some rely on intuition (with excellent psychological quality and natural talent), some profit through macroeconomic strategic thinking (with good psychological quality and extreme patience), and some profit by being cautious (with average psychological quality, but their cautious nature leads them to exit decisively after a loss).
All of the above have their own characteristics and have undergone long-term testing by the market. At least so far, they have been relatively successful. There are various ways to profit; you need to conduct a self-analysis to determine what kind of person you are and what styles suit you best, and formulate a trading model that fits you.
Perhaps what doesn’t work for others may work for you. What is suitable is the most reasonable and the best. If something is not appropriate, please bear with it.
I have seen people make quick money; an electric vehicle really turned into a Mercedes, but ultimately lost money quickly as well. It’s not surprising to see a Mercedes go back to being an electric vehicle. I do not particularly like the idea of paper wealth and empty joy; my own results are not the best, but the overall style is relatively stable.
Except for the losses in the seventh month of the previous year, all other months were profitable. In the circle, my performance is only considered average, but stability is above average. What struck me deeply is that among the 14 major accounts in the large account area, only two remain now.
One is me, and one is Senior Xue. We are both not making much profit, but we can be considered stable. The elder once said: fear not the slow, but fear the fast. There must be some truth in it. Let’s encourage each other and continue to be humble and steady on our journey.
Let me ask a common question: Can market trends be predicted? My answer is: I don’t know; I can’t predict, and none of my friends can predict either. Perhaps I am just ignorant. However, I often see friends making profits without relying on predictions.
The varieties I participate in are more inclined towards the Shanghai market, which has a large capital capacity and high confrontation intensity. The copper, zinc, rubber, and rebar in the Shanghai market are the key varieties I focus my capital deployment on.
The largest capital deployment is in IF stock index futures. The overall capital deployment style is: overall distribution, highlighting key points. The primary and secondary contradictions should be participated in according to their intensity; in my opinion, this can comprehensively control the systemic risk of capital accounts while allowing profit growth to tend toward stability.
My method is not the most optimal; I have seen accounts with extremely meticulous capital deployment that did beautifully, and I envy them. However, I cannot do that for now.
Based on my personal experiences in 2005 and 2008, the technical patterns have logic to follow and reality to pursue. The copper bull market starting in 2005 and the copper bear market in 2008 are unforgettable experiences for those who participated; regardless, they have left a deep impression.
Especially in the second half of the unilateral decline in 2008, the Shanghai side continuously raised the margin ratio, even taking measures for forced liquidation to ease the confrontational relationship. I felt the same in the market at that time, and nearly half of my positions were forcibly liquidated, which was quite regrettable. Even years later, I still clearly remember it.
In terms of technical patterns, the breakout from a new high in 2005 and the downward break from a standard converging triangle in 2008 are things that any investor with a basic skill level can understand.
Facts have proven it to be undoubtedly successful. But I must emphasize the unsuccessful situations. I recall that from 2005 to 2008, successful pattern trends appeared twice, while unsuccessful pattern trends appeared four times, with a success rate of just over 30%. This conclusion is based on facts, and facts are the only standard for testing truth, which is hard to refute.
A low success rate can still be attempted because the profit rate of the two successful pattern trends exceeds 700% (compound profit rate), while the loss rate of the four unsuccessful pattern trends averages 67% (also compound).
This means that there is no absolute effectiveness, nor is there absolute ineffectiveness, but there is absolute effectiveness in maintaining continuous profit growth under strict stop-loss discipline. This is something that can be fully explained philosophically, and the facts have also successfully verified it.
There is no absolute effectiveness, only relative absolute effectiveness. This is my view.
Regarding day trading, I can share my humble opinion: do not start trading immediately; observe others' trades first, especially accounts that perform extremely poorly.
You can spend a month observing these accounts daily, just to see how they incur losses, how those losses gradually expand to an unmanageable level, how they cling to fantasies, and how trading plans are repeatedly altered, ultimately breaking through the trader's psychological defenses. When you observe and memorize these for a long time, I believe as long as you have basic skills, day trading will see significant improvements.
My experience is that they only hold onto profits for a short time; to avoid losses, they quickly realize profits and exit. However, when facing losses, they struggle intensely, continuously finding excuses to hold onto losing positions until the losses become unmanageable. The final trading characteristic reflects: large losses and small gains.
It requires reverse thinking. Successful individuals are not successful because they are spectacular, but rather spectacular because they are successful. It requires reverse thinking.
Even large-scale confrontational funds need to follow the basic supply and demand relationship, especially in today’s globalized world, where building a car behind closed doors is no longer sufficient to force a squeeze; otherwise, the harsh reality of spot delivery will be right in front of you.
Do you remember the peak confrontation of huge opposing funds in Jinrui Futures in 2005 and 2008? Just the openly exposed pure opposing funds were all over 2 billion, making them the most powerful opposing side. The result, however, was two failures, extremely tragic.
Facts have shown that opposing funds that do not comply with basic supply and demand and do not follow the overall market forces also face tragic defeats. Therefore, based on this point, whoever stands on the side of following the market is the active party, and whoever stands on the opposing side of the market is the passive party.
My other feeling is that whether on our side or the opposing side, regardless of the size of the funds, regardless of how aggressive or sluggish the methods are, we must follow the trend. The fact that those who follow thrive and those who go against perish has been verified countless times in history.
Even Soros' attack on the pound was based on detailed analysis that predicted a devaluation trend in the pound's fundamentals, which is why he dared to escalate contradictions and pierce through the asset bubble; the role was merely to follow and promote, rather than to reverse.
The market is relatively fair to any investor (it is difficult to achieve absolute fairness in China, as we all know). As you mentioned, during the confrontations in Zhejiang and Shanghai, if Shanghai had promptly followed the trend and accepted losses to exit, there would definitely not have been the tragic situation of forced liquidation.
Losses are only limited. No one can unilaterally provoke opposition; contradictions require both parties. A war without opponents will never yield results, no matter what.
It’s still the old saying, a classic saying: those who follow thrive, those who go against perish. If you stand on the side of following historical trends, then continue to stand firm and timely promote the wave, creating new dynamics; if you stand on the opposing side of the trend, then quickly recognize your mistake and leave, immediately standing on the side of following.
The final direction of the market has its own logic. Investors who keep trying and quickly leave after making mistakes will not make big mistakes; those who continue to act recklessly after making mistakes are merely cannon fodder.
I often quietly observe those who act recklessly in the market through my technical means, and the data I summarize shows the following characteristics: investors with smaller amounts of capital tend to resist losses better, while those with larger amounts of capital tend to hold onto profits. Assuming there are 10 trading days, investors with smaller amounts of capital only have profits on a maximum of 3 trading days, and those profits are minimal.
Investors with larger amounts of capital have profits over nearly 7 trading days, and the profit-to-loss ratio is 12:1. Here, the size of capital refers to the intersection of investors, not the union. The average daily consumption of retail investor capital is around 1%-4%; I witness such hunting battles daily, gaining deep insights.
I have a deep feeling that thorough research and investigation should be done before trading, targeting the historical facts of each variety. Making yourself well-informed is a rare achievement.
Moreover, all trades are strategic, with corresponding strategies to address each situation that arises, which is very reasonable. This also reflects the comprehensiveness, systematicness, and strategic nature of thought from another perspective.
My suggestion, based on my experience, is to reduce the number of varieties you operate on and try to select the ones you are most familiar with and can handle best, ideally around three varieties. Specialization is key; you cannot be good at every field, but you can definitely be an expert in a few.
Fix your time zones, fix your volatility, fix your capital allocation, and fix your win-loss ratios. Just like an equation, you must first determine the unknowns; you need to know where you want to go before thinking about how to get there.
A relatively fixed range of values can significantly reduce your breakthrough difficulty in the initial technical breakthroughs and increase your chances of jumping. It’s not about the number of people; it’s about being useful. Large institutions can still incur losses, while individuals can still make profits when doing it right. Behind futures is capital, behind capital is people, and the ruler of people is habit.
When it comes to a life-or-death situation, it is a contest of who has the least human weaknesses. Those who adopt a casual attitude will not win. It is essential to take it seriously, analyze objectively, and gradually improve oneself by letting rationality on the left side conquer emotion on the right side.
Follow Su Ge closely, using precise strategy analysis and large-scale AI big data selection, to put yourself in an undefeated position? The market never lacks opportunities; the question is whether you can seize them. By following experienced and the right people, we can earn more!