Common points of the past two bull markets: each time after hitting a new high, a crash is inevitable!
After the new high in 2017, it fell over 20% a total of 4 times, with 3 of those completing within a month.
In 2021: fell over 20% a total of 3 times (not counting the 519 crash), generally concluded within a month.
The bull market cycle is fixed at 1 year.
From the breakthrough of the previous high to the peak: 10-11 months.
From the first major drop low to the peak: 9-10 months.
Abnormal phenomena in this bull market:
The crash duration is excessively long.
In March 2024, it dropped 26%, taking six months!
In December 2024, it dropped 28%, taking another six months!
(Previously, crashes lasted at most 1 month.)
Decoupled from the US stock market.
From March to September 2024, the US stock market rose, while Bitcoin fell.
From December 2024 to April 2025, the US stock market fell by 10%, and Bitcoin followed with a crash of 28%.
Cycle rules have become ineffective.
According to the old rules, the bull market should end in March 2025, but it is clearly still in turmoil.
If estimated according to the first major drop low, this bull market may last until September 2025.
But history will not simply repeat itself, especially with the prolonged crash duration and the lack of synchronization with the US stock market, indicating that the market has become more complex.