1. Screening core logic

  1. Tracks take precedence over individual currencies
    Long-term value depends on the underlying demand, and key tracks include:

    • Layer 2 and expansion: low-cost and efficient expansion solutions for the Ethereum ecosystem (such as the OP Stack ecosystem).

    • Modular blockchains: projects that decouple the execution/settlement/data layers (Celestia, Dymension).

    • DeFi innovation: leveraged returns, RWA (real asset) tokenization, and decentralized stablecoins.

    • AI + Blockchain: decentralized computing power market, AI privacy computing (such as http://io.net, Arkham).

    • Bitcoin ecosystem: Ordinals protocol, Layer 2 (Stacks) and DeFi applications.

  2. Market value and growth balance

    • High-risk potential coins: market value < $100 million, significant technological differentiation (such as public chains in vertical fields).

    • Medium-risk growth coins: proven models, market capitalization of $1-5 billion (such as DeFi protocols, cross-chain bridges).

    • Low-risk blue chips: Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as the basic configuration.

2. Key currency types to watch in 2025 (case studies)

  1. Ethereum Layer 2 Ecosystem

    • OP Stack series: Optimism (OP), Base chain (if issuing coins).

    • ZK-Rollup series: zkSync (potential coin issuance), Starknet (STRK).

    • Modular expansion: AltLayer (ALT), Metis (METIS).

  2. Bitcoin Ecosystem Extension

    • Layer 2 protocols: Stacks (STX), Merlin Chain (potential coin issuance).

    • Asset protocols: RGB Protocol, Taproot Assets.

  3. AI and decentralized computing

    • Computing power network: Render (RNDR), Akash (AKT), io.net (IO).

    • Data and models: Fetch.ai (FET), Ocean Protocol (OCEAN).

  4. DeFi 2.0 RWA Award

    • Revenue aggregation: Pendle (PENDLE), Ethena (ENA).

    • Real assets: Ondo (ONDO), Mantra (OM).

  5. Emerging public chains and cross-chain

    • Modular chains: Celestia (TIA), Dymension (DYM).

    • Cosmos ecosystem: Injective (INJ), Sei (SEI).

3. Risk Warning

  1. Policy regulation: Regulations on cryptocurrencies in various countries (such as the US SEC policy) may cause market fluctuations.

  2. Technology implementation: Most projects are still in the conceptual stage and actual application scenarios need to be verified.

  3. Market cycle: significantly affected by the macro economy (interest rate hikes/cuts).

  4. Liquidity risk: Small-cap currencies are easily manipulated, so be wary of short-term sharp fluctuations.

4. Dynamic tracking suggestions

  1. On-chain tools:

    • Dune Analytics: Analyzes on-chain transactions and protocol revenue.

    • Token Terminal: View the project revenue and valuation ratio (PS/PE).

  2. Community News:

    • GitHub code submission volume: reflects the speed of technology iteration.

    • X (formerly Twitter): Follow KOLs and project progress.

  3. Industry events:

    • Ethereum ETF, Bitcoin halving cycle, Federal Reserve monetary policy, etc.

5. Principles of rational investment

  • Long-termism: Focus on technologies that solve real needs (such as reducing costs and increasing efficiency).

  • Diversified allocation: blue chip coins + potential coins combination to reduce the risk of a single track.

  • Disciplined operation: set take-profit and stop-loss, and avoid emotional decision-making.

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