The market is currently in the ultra-short-term bottom-finding stage; be patient and wait for the short-term buying signal at the bottom; don’t rush!
BTC Focus Points:
Support to look at: 103300 / 101175 / 98500 / 97200
The pressure level is temporarily just looking at the new high
Yesterday, BTC surged to 110722, then was heavily sold off. It tested the high again early morning but did not break through; it’s a good short signal.
Don’t regret what you missed; if others can catch it, it means they stayed up all night watching the market. Trying small positions to seize opportunities is what others deserve!
ETH Focus Points:
Support: 2403 / 2343 / 2285 / 2215
Pressure to watch: 2720 / 2740 range
Focus on the 2460-2480 range; Bitcoin now shows a bullish trend, and buying points on the 5-minute level will appear first. It’s time to test whether you have developed short-term trading skills during this period!
Remember: during the decline process, just follow my 12345 strategy, okay? Have you learned it? If not, hurry up and review it while you can!
Operational advice:
If given the opportunity today, try small positions directly. As long as you control your position well, you won’t panic or experience FOMO.
If you can't control it well, heavily investing and jumping in and out can be exciting, but the risk of liquidation is always present!
I took a look around and found that the main line of the market is still the AI track!
A brief summary of the strength and weakness trends of various coins in the AI sector:
Strong coins: AIXBT, VIRTUAL, KAITO, COOKIE, TURBO, AI16Z
Medium-strong coins: TAO, WLD, INJ, IO, FET, RENDER
Weak coins: NFP, AI, ACT, LPT, PHB, POND, PHA
Operational advice:
If you missed the AI opportunity earlier, now you can consider speculating on a wave of strong coins’ rebound; for weak coins, try using small funds for short-term trades, taking a few dozen points and then running, and don’t think about holding long-term; overall, the AI sector's sustainability looks good and can basically be confirmed as one of the main lines of this bull market.
BNB is starting to gain momentum; BSC will definitely become a market hotspot next.
Briefly discuss the coins worth paying attention to in the BSC ecosystem:
1. Directly buy BNB, the safest choice, especially suitable for large amounts of capital.
2. Layout infrastructure projects on BSC:
CAKE is the leading DEX; it’s even stronger with the heat of BSC, as CZ will definitely continue to build the BSC ecosystem.
XVS is a lending protocol.
BAKE is an NFT trading platform.
Regarding new projects:
Lista and THE are both DeFi protocols on BSC.
Lista also supports BNB participation in Launchpool mining, offering additional returns.
Choose one of these two; currently, it seems that Lista's trend is stronger.
Regarding meme coins:
These two are worth watching: $MUBARAK and $BANANAS31.
Recently, a company listed on the US stock market, involved in betting business, raised $425 million in the crypto space, claiming to buy Ethereum (ETH) in large amounts like 'MicroStrategy'.
I looked at the funding sources behind them; they are all old players who heavily invested in Ethereum back in the day, such as Consensys, ParaFi, and Pantera.
In simple terms, the major investors in Ethereum have created a 'Ethereum version of MicroStrategy', aiming to pull the market up and boost prices. Many people don’t quite understand this operation; it’s essentially similar to those altcoin project parties 'self-rescuing'.
A few days ago, there was a coin on the verge of collapse, and the whales pulled it to attract investment from the foundation, successfully pushing the price up several times with this news. Such operations are becoming more common, and the underlying meaning is clear: everyone knows that this bull market is nearing its end, and any opportunity to pump is worth taking.
The dog of Ethereum's mascot ETHCHAIN definitely has OCD; the hourly K-line is the most regular I've seen among the grassroots! The token rises daily without fail.
Regarding RatoTheRatCoin, the whales really understand retail investor psychology.
Today, the little mouse RATO rebounded slightly, and I’ve already seen some brothers getting excited. This is actually the old trick of the whales—after being whipped a lot, they occasionally apply some ointment, not because the whales suddenly became kind, but to make you endure longer next time when being whipped.
Let's talk about reality, without dreams.
The little mouse RATO has been down for over a week since its peak, and the trapped brothers are still waiting for the so-called new book expectations. The whales rely on this expectation to sell daily, appearing to be harmless, but in reality, they are slowly draining you; it has already dropped 88% overall.
During this decline, a lot of capital has already been washed out; the larger the funds, the sooner they run away. Instead of waiting for a new book every day, it’s better to think about which group the whales might target next.
Although RATO has been falling all the way, looking at the data shows that the number of holding addresses has not only not decreased but has even slightly increased. The holding ratio of the top 100 holders has also dropped to 50%, indicating that the foundational consensus has already formed. This wave of decline is just the big holders taking turns controlling the market, and during this time, quite a few retail investors have come in.
For the next wave of entering the market, the more dispersed the chips and the more addresses, the better, as this allows their capital to have room to play. Only by targeting those with smaller sizes than themselves can advantages be maximized.
Currently, those who are trapped are mostly retail investors. For the whales, entering the market has become less risky. As soon as they pull the price up a bit, retail investors will immediately start to recharge their faith and promote each other, reigniting the topic and attracting more retail investors, thereby expanding consensus.
Of course, this is just rational analysis. The worst-case scenario is that no decent whale is interested in this setup, only some small funds are competing within, and the setup ultimately collapses.
Recently, $B has seen some pullback, especially yesterday when the entire BNB Chain experienced a downturn. Many in the community started asking if this wave of BNB Chain's market is coming to an end?
I personally feel: it’s not over yet.
I had a realization recently: when you throw a punch, you need to pull back deeper; only then can the next punch be more powerful.
Why don’t I pay attention to those ACDEFG small imitation coins? Because in my eyes, they all follow the narrative of $B to ride the wave, at most they are just small jabs with limited potential.
In other words, a few people come together to make a small venture; if you are close and get in early, you can still play. But if it has already spread across the internet, can you still gamble that they have 'vision' and won’t dump? Then the cost-performance ratio is not as good as $B.
Yesterday, I took a look at the on-chain address growth of $USD1, and I also updated several dimensions of application data I have. To be honest, it looks quite lively, but the growth is just so-so.
In other words, if I were ZachWitkoff and worldlibertyfi, I definitely wouldn’t be satisfied. So what should be done? They must continue to strengthen their efforts to guide the market. At this point, who is the most effective lever? It’s not those so-called second or third-tier projects; the answer is still $B.
One punch thrown, a hundred flowers bloom.
$B has indeed helped BNBCHAINZH break through the ceiling and has also opened up the situation for $USD1. If that’s not enough, then keep pushing until all those who are still hesitating, speculators, project parties, and developers can’t help but rush in—that's the real effect of a bright strategy.
So I added a bit more to $B; to be honest, making more or less profit doesn’t matter much to me now; it’s more about validating logic and experiencing a sense of completion. It’s better to keep playing; it’s quite interesting.
Keep a portion of your dream position, aiming for 1 Bitcoin to take profit. What if it really happens?
Since yesterday, many have been asking me if this 'Binance Alpha Coin' on OK is worth pursuing, so I did some research.
In fact, this thing is really simple for old DeFi investors; to put it simply, it’s just taking the 'Add LP Pool' function of PancakeSwap, putting it into a shell, and rebranding it with the OKX wallet. The interface is more intuitive and more suitable for mobile users.
Recently, the wave of bright strategies from BinanceWallet has indeed made it difficult for other CEXs, and OKX is launching this product to attract Alpha users and increase wallet activity, which is a way to try.
Let's start with the conclusion:
1. This strategy is most suitable for when the cryptocurrency price fluctuates within a certain range repeatedly. If there is no fluctuation, it can easily lead to problems: if the price rises too much, you might sell too early and earn less than holding; if it drops too much, you will end up with a pile of coins and incur greater losses. Only when prices continuously move back and forth within the range you set, the longer it lasts, the more profitable it becomes.
2. Don’t just look at high APRs; some coins can be tempting but may end up trapping you for life, especially those newly launched coins funded by VCs, as the project side can dump at any time.
3. Prioritize farming those that have been running the longest, have the largest and most stable pools, or coins that might see a market in the secondary market later on—I'll explain why later.
4. If you are worried about your coins being sold off, you can directly use USDT to buy some coins and create an LP to farm. I did this in the morning, bought some B and directly farmed.
Does everyone still remember the SUI incident from earlier?
I mentioned before that during that incident, SuiNetwork definitely wouldn’t die, but for the Cetus project, it’s indeed quite difficult since they lost too much.
However, today I saw their announcement that they plan to use treasury funds + cash + loans from the Sui Foundation to compensate. Although it may not all be cash compensation, achieving 100% coverage at this scale and speed is really not easy.
I used to primarily use Cetus on Sui; I genuinely feel it is much better than Lifi, and I sincerely hope they can get through this time.
Prepare to welcome the final market of the bull run!
Looking at the M2 increment, this wave is indeed quite accurate; it basically goes slightly above the previous high, then retraces slightly, consolidating horizontally for a week. Following this rhythm, it should continue to rise in June.
The AHR999 indicator has now reached a critical boundary.
The altcoin season index is still at the bottom, indicating that opportunities are still ahead.
I noticed that WLD recently raised another $150 million; I feel that if there are still positions, it wouldn’t hurt to grab some since this project is another offspring of the father of ChatGPT.
Speaking of ChatGPT, its strength is still significant. For something like deepseek, it feels like it has reached its limit; trying to fish for big catches like OpenAI is basically hopeless—it's simply 'water without a source'. I estimate that OpenAI will soon reveal a new move; once the new model is launched, the AI sector should heat up again.
The biggest uncertainty in this cycle is still the attitude and policies of institutions and the US government toward Bitcoin; various disturbances during the cycle are almost all created by them.
But ultimately, what is meant to come will come. The pendulum will not stop; we are already in the last few months of the bull market—hold on tight!
The wash trading strategies in the cryptocurrency market have changed; do not view the market with the old mindset. Many people still think that it can be like the previous bull market, where Bitcoin rises to a certain point, then drops 20%, consolidates, and gives everyone a chance to gradually accumulate.
But in this round of the bull market, rising from 74000 to 110000, as soon as the market starts, corrections are instant recoveries, giving no opportunity for those left out. Quality altcoins (like AAVE, VIRTUAL, TURBO, NERIO, MOODENG, etc.) dropping over 20% is just clearing leverage, and then they immediately rise again. Many people haven't reacted yet, and the prices have gone up. This is what I've been saying: those who miss out can only keep missing. Altcoins that give you an opportunity to enter are either consolidating or still dropping, and buying them likely results in being trapped.
Is there still a chance to get in? Of course, there is. No matter how the market changes, sector rotation never changes. You can only ambush in a certain sector before it takes off and wait for the main wave, otherwise, if you keep watching, you will always miss out or chase the hot spots and get trapped; capital will then move to other sectors, leaving you only watching others make profits.
Therefore, it's essential to clearly understand the market rhythm and the whales' wash trading methods; otherwise, you will always be cannon fodder.
Let me share some good news with everyone:
Grayscale has established a new AI cryptocurrency sector, which includes TAO, NEAR, and RENDER. Looking at it, currently only $NEAR hasn't increased much.
NEAR, with its unique Nightshade sharding technology and AI chain abstraction technology, is expected to become the next hot spot. As the king in the sharding domain, TVL will definitely increase, and it has already supported EVM, showing good potential and stability; conservatively, it can be bought.
