Bull markets grow amidst doubt, often hiding golden opportunities after a crash!

News: Long and short positions intertwine, institutions are secretly bottom-fishing.

Policies and institutions: Trump delays EU tariffs, temporarily easing market panic, but there are still disagreements on the Fed's interest rate cut path, and macro uncertainty suppresses BTC breakthroughs. Institutions are adding positions against the trend, with MicroStrategy spending $427 million in the past week to buy the dip, and ETF funds seeing a net inflow of $2.75 billion for two consecutive weeks; the big players are buying more as prices fall.

On-chain signals: Giant whales accumulated 213,000 coins in March $BTC , recent movements from a dormant 9-year-old wallet ($400 million transferred), long-term holders are loosening their chips, but short-term holders' pressure from losses has eased, and the market's selling pressure is weakening.

Risk events: US PCE inflation data will be released in early June; if it exceeds expectations, the Fed's interest rate cuts will be delayed, putting pressure on risk assets; conversely, BTC may surge.

Technical analysis: Golden cross is starting to appear, but the mid-track is a death line.

MACD: Golden cross confirmed (DIF > DEA), histogram turns red and expands, short-term rebound momentum strengthens, but be wary of a 'bottom divergence' signal where prices make new lows but MACD does not follow.

Bollinger Bands: Current price is close to the lower band (around 85,000 USD), if stabilized or rebounds to test the mid-band (95,000-100,000), a breakthrough would signal a trend reversal; if the mid-band is under pressure, a second bottom test may occur.

Key levels: Support at 85,500 (200-day MA), breaking below may slide to 82,700; resistance closely watching the previous high of 109,000, breaking through opens up the possibility of 128,000.

Operation summary: Light positions to test long, strictly adhere to stop losses

Short-term: Light positions to test long near 108,000, set stop loss at 105,000, target 115,000; if it breaks 85,500, short to 82,700.

Medium-term: Add positions if stabilizing at mid-track (93,000+), observe if dropping below 82,000.

Core logic: Institutions are bottom fishing and supporting prices, but macro variables are significant; surviving amidst high volatility is more important than how much one earns!

The stronger the storm, the happier the whales—are you ready to catch BTC's bloody chips in the next wave? #美国加征关税

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