On Tuesday, Dogecoin fell to the lower end of its one-month volatility range. Independent chart analyst Quantum Ascent provided a detailed analysis of why he believes the meme coin is currently in a correction phase and could eventually drop to the high of 12 cents. During the European midday, the price of Dogecoin hovered around $0.228, down nearly 12% from its peak on May 11, with slight intraday declines.
Dogecoin has entered a danger zone
The analyst reviewed the daily chart and turned to the explosive move that started on May 8 and soared 50% within three trading days: "Last time we were here on May 8, we saw this massive green candle, and we said, guys, it looks like we're about to start the fifth micro wave here." His initial upward forecast modestly extended the 2.36 Fibonacci sequence, but Dogecoin "actually rose even higher," he added, marking a strong retail momentum but also indicating that this pattern now seems to be over.
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Quantum Ascent subsequently adjusted his wave count to indicate that this advance is merely the fifth sub-wave in a larger first wave rally. "We are currently in the middle of ABC... these blue waves will move here," he said while redrawing labels to mark the ongoing retracement. According to Elliott Wave Theory, the C wave must at least equal the A wave, and the host translated this rule into arithmetic: "From there, a 18.8%... that’s one of our targets, around 20.5 cents."
He believes that deeper penetration is not only possible but statistically common, as "it often enters the third or fourth wave." By measuring the low point in early May to the high point in mid-May, he plotted the 0.500, 0.618, and 0.702 retracement levels — this range roughly extends from 19.5 cents to 17 cents — and called it the "reasonable area for the first and second wave reset." In his view, pausing slightly at 0.382 (around 21.8 cents) would be "a rather shallow correction."
An attempt to break through has stalled in what he called the "danger zone" between the 0.618 and 0.786 retracement levels: "We tried to break through but failed... we wickedly broke through it and ultimately fell to 702, which is the level of rejection, and now it has started to pull back again." This failure left a nearby trigger point: "If we break this low at 21 cents, then we will definitely see 20.5 cents."
He added that the tape movement resembles Wyckoff's re-accumulation structure: "It really looks like a Wyckoff pattern, and we are building strong signals here, after which the market will start to rise." However, if bullish signals do arrive, it is likely to be several weeks away. The ongoing correction marks "the macro second wave we are struggling to cope with," he emphasized, noting that the subsequent third wave will be decisive: "The macro third wave — those are the 'big ones.' Those are the 'big waves.' That’s where we really gain momentum."
The macro environment has suppressed any enthusiasm in the short term. Bitcoin — whose fifth wave peak arrived earlier and surpassed previous cycle highs — has entered its own ABC phase, and Quantum Ascent expects altcoins to "stabilize" with the leader. "Whether it quickly enters the C wave phase or just continues to hover, we will have to wait and see," he summarized, urging followers to focus on volume and closing prices rather than intraday movements.
As always, the Elliott Wave Theory remains interpretative rather than predictive, and traders should adjust their positions based on their own risk tolerance. Dogecoin remains the eighth largest by market cap in the cryptocurrency market, but the rising volatility means that even small price gaps could translate into double-digit percentage fluctuations.
As of the time of writing, the trading price of DOGE is $0.228.
