Probability of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts in June 2025 and the Development of the Cryptocurrency Market

1. Macroeconomic Environment: Interest Rate Suppression and Technological Breakthroughs

• Sharp Decline in Rate Cut Expectations: The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June is only 5.6%, with a 94.4% probability of maintaining current rates. The Trump administration's 50% tariff increase on the EU has intensified supply chain shocks, with core inflation potentially exceeding 3%, significantly raising the threshold for short-term rate cuts.

• Technology-Driven Transformation: The application of blockchain technology has exploded, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology focusing on data security. Layer 2 scaling solutions (like zkSync) are processing over a million transactions daily, with transaction fees dropping to below $0.01. Bitcoin possesses attributes of both “digital gold + infrastructure,” with institutional holdings reaching 15%.

2. Regulatory Game: Global Framework and Risks

• Compliance Process: The EU's MiCAR transition period has begun, and the jurisdictional dispute between the SEC and CFTC in the U.S. may be resolved within the year, with spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing inflows exceeding $40 billion in a single day. Russia allows limited purchases of cryptocurrencies, injecting trillions in incremental funds.

• Risk Warnings: China has banned exchanges and token issuance, but investment remains legal. Be wary of pseudo-innovations in Layer 2; some projects have actual trading costs reaching $7.5, which involves risks of Ponzi schemes.

3. Market Structure: Institutional Dominance and Retail Participation

• Institutional Acceleration: BlackRock, Fidelity, and others are increasing holdings through ETFs, with publicly traded companies holding $349 billion, and Bitcoin's volatility has dropped to 65%.

• New Paradigm for Retail Investors: The OTC licensing system in Hong Kong has been implemented, with platforms like Futu opening compliant trading in August. AI meme coins are attracting younger users, with community-driven models reshaping the ecosystem.

4. Key Variables and Strategies

• Technical Indicators and Capital Flow: Bitcoin's RSI is nearing 60, with long-term holders accounting for 78% of positions. It is recommended to employ dollar-cost averaging and increase positions on breakthroughs, with a focus on the $120,000 threshold.

Summary

The probability of a rate cut in June is extremely low, but the cryptocurrency market is shifting towards dual drivers of technology and institutions. In the short term, be cautious of tariff impacts, while maintaining a positive outlook on the value of allocations post-regulation in the medium to long term. It is advised to retain 30% cash and invest in Layer 2 and AI tokens. #比特币2025大会