Looking at the future of BTC with a long-term perspective

In the short term, the market's focus is on whether BTC can achieve a nine-week consecutive rise after a consecutive eight-week rise. At first glance, this question seems reasonable. Looking at historical data, since Binance has data on BTC starting from August 2017, there has never been a nine-week consecutive rise. It seems reasonable to look for short-selling opportunities here, but I think we should consider the logic behind BTC reaching a new historical high again.

Let me first mention a theory that I like: simplicity is the ultimate sophistication. It suggests that if BTC's rise leads to an established upward trend, it may rise for 100 days, which can be verified on the candlestick chart. If we count 100 days from April 8, it would be July 12.

So, what major events are happening in July? Actually, there is only one on the surface: the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in July. The Federal Reserve is very likely to lower interest rates this year; the market is just uncertain about which month this will happen, which is the focal point of mid-term market speculation. Therefore, I speculate that behind this strong rise of BTC reaching a new historical high, there may be an unexpected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July.

From a long-term perspective, the market speculation focuses on how quickly the Triffin Dilemma of the dollar will become unsustainable. One of the central banks' strategies in this regard is to increase gold reserves, while one of the U.S. government's strategies is to expand the application scope and market value of stablecoins, as well as promote BTC to become a strategic reserve asset. Various capital will also hedge the risks of dollar assets with gold and BTC. Lower interest rates, the expansion of stablecoins, the risks of dollar assets, and capital allocation towards BTC are all favorable for BTC's rise, but all of this cannot be completed by 2025; rather, it will last at least until the end of this halving cycle (April 2024 - April 2028).

Therefore, the market's short-term speculation is on how long BTC can continue its weekly rise and whether it can break through $120,000; the mid-term speculation is whether there will be an unexpected interest rate cut in July and whether it can break through $150,000 within this year. The long-term speculation is whether it can break through $500,000 or $1,000,000 during this cycle (April 2024 - April 2028) or before Trump's term ends (January 2029), achieving a surpassing market value over gold.