Supplementary update beyond today's video:
Macro: Tariffs are just the stick that Trump wields, not the result of smashing down. It can be expected that people's fluctuating expectations of tariff policies will gradually stabilize over time.
Micro: The current liquidation liquidity in the futures market is characterized by a concentration of short positions, and it is a high-level massive liquidity area. The distribution of long positions is even, while the price is operating in areas with scarce liquidity both above and below. Therefore, it is highly likely that the price will first form a range for oscillation in this place.
And the huge short liquidity makes it impossible for Bitcoin to initiate a downward long liquidation market even after the pullback last Friday, which is enough to prove that this area still has strong price attraction, leading to continuous investment in fuel.
Summary 1 (Short-term): Under the light background of the above two points, it can be expected that maintaining a range oscillation this week is the most in line with the current market demand. Generally, it is easy to form a converging triangle pattern at such times.
Moreover, since Trump is still influencing the market, the trading logic is likely to be chaotic. Currently, it seems that Bitcoin is likely to return to around 111k, near the price level before the negative drop last Friday, so there will likely be a few days of rebound and oscillation here.
Therefore, the suggestion remains: confirm a potential converging range, lower expectations for short-term trading, and cooperate with the main forces to act as fuel. (This point can refer to the detailed positions given in the video perspective)
Summary 2 (Trend): Combining the above two macro and micro aspects of long and short liquidity and market liquidation sentiment, along with the data I have noticed from the options market, it is very likely that we will see a market top that completely drives shorts to despair and longs to madness. I do not believe that the left-side high point will be the peak of this wave, but the real peak should not be too far from this position~ as previously projected in the video to be 124k, which is the 2.618 position of the Fibonacci long expansion.
To be honest, the market that started from 74000 should gradually reach its peak. The liquidity on the board has changed from sparse a month ago to dense now. When there are no longer liquidity vacuum areas above and below the price, this market should welcome its final conclusion!
Previously, when it was time to liquidate high-level liquidity, it was smashed down by Trump and the mouse warehouse. Yesterday, when it was time to liquidate 103k long liquidity, it was called back by Trump again. Since there is no logic in this market, we can only judge the internal supply and demand changes through the price reactions to positive and negative news.
