$BTC $ETH 🚨Bitcoin Surge Alert! Key Levels Exposed, Smart Money Has Quietly Positioned Itself🚨
Summary
Currently, BTC has broken through $109,050, stabilizing above MA200, but RSI is overbought, facing short-term correction pressure. It is recommended to gradually build long positions in the range of $107,800-$108,300, with a strict stop loss set at 1.5%, targeting a bullish outlook to $111,500. Beware of profit-taking pressure at high levels and the risk of continued outflow of contract funds.
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Technical Analysis
1. Price Status:
• Bollinger Bands: Price has broken above the upper band at $108,863, with the Bollinger Bands widening, and overbought signals are significant (Bollinger Position 107.64%).
• MA200: Current price is 1.77% away from MA200 ($107,151); the medium-term trend remains strong but the deviation has reached a warning threshold.
• AHR999 Index: At 2.54, it is in the "Investment Risk Zone," indicating the market is overheated and needs to adjust and gather strength.
2. Market Strength:
• Trading Volume: 24-hour volume ratio is 2.09, with price-volume divergence (price increase of 1.2% vs volume doubling), indicating weakened driving force of the main players.
• Position Movement: 1-hour positions increased by 1.08%, but 8-hour positions increased by 1.83% with a resurgence in the short position ratio, indicating a deepening of short-term divergence between long and short positions.
• Long-Short Ratio: Long-short ratio is 1.59→1.46, with smart money continuously reducing long exposure for two days.
3. Key Levels:
• Support: $107,150 (Upper edge of MA200 + Dense spot trading area)
• Resistance: $111,500 (Previous high + Psychological round number)
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Market Cycle Analysis
1. Current Cycle: Mid-stage acceleration of a bull market, but the AHR999 index and RSI both being overbought indicate a need for short-term correction, and the cycle transition window is approaching.
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Trading Strategy
1. Specific Levels:
• Entry: $107,800 (Safety margin above MA200)
• Stop Loss: $106,200 (1.5% below the previous low support level)
• Target: $111,500 (3.4% profit margin)
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 3.4/1.5 = 2.27:1
2. Risk Warning:
• The RSI overbought correction may trigger a 5% level correction
• Net outflow of 17.45k BTC in 3-day contracts, indicating a signal of main fund withdrawal
• Timeliness of news regarding Asian food companies purchasing BTC is decreasing; beware of good news running out
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