A newly created wallet withdrew 20,009 Solana [SOL] (valued at $3.53 million) from Binance and immediately staked 19,875 SOL.

The wallet also sent 134 SOL to another staking address, bringing the total staked holdings to 9,270.4 SOL, equivalent to $1.6 million.

Of course, such large-scale staking activity indicates investors' long-term confidence. However, the market response remains muted.

Investors might interpret this as a confidence quietly building beneath the surface, although broader market signals must align before a strong trend emerges.

With a surge in long liquidations, will the bulls find themselves in trouble?

On May 25, long liquidations across major exchanges reached $6.1 million, while short liquidations were only $326,000.

This apparent imbalance reflects that, in the context of recent price declines, the market is punishing over-leveraged bullish traders.

Binance alone accounts for $2.76 million in long liquidations, reinforcing the dominance of selling momentum.

Historically, such liquidation bias typically indicates a cooling down of the market or a potential reversal. Thus, this may mark the end of excessive bullish speculation and could suggest that deeper bearish pressure is building up.

These data emphasize caution, especially for those still holding significant long positions.

Despite market fluctuations, why are 69% of traders still going long?

According to Binance long-short account data, 68.95% of traders hold long positions in SOL, with a long-short ratio of 2.22.

This suggests that even after experiencing a wave of large-scale liquidations, most retail traders remain optimistic.

However, this imbalance in sentiment often foreshadows further volatility or fluctuation. If SOL continues to range sideways or declines further, these long positions may again face liquidation pressure.

This also indicates a disconnect between trader expectations and actual price momentum. Therefore, despite the bullish sentiment in the market, there remains considerable risk for those chasing higher prices.

As the RSI cools down, will SOL break through $193 or fall again?

As of the time of writing, SOL's trading price is $172.34, still struggling to break through the 0.786 Fibonacci resistance level of $193.

Despite a recent rebound, momentum has stagnated, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling back to 61.87 from previous highs. This level still shows moderate bullish control but is insufficient to confirm a breakout.

For bulls, reclaiming $193 is crucial for targeting the next Fibonacci range of $229.46. However, repeated drops below this range may reinforce the range's volatility structure and even trigger a sustained downtrend.

Why, despite large whale holdings, do outflows still dominate?

On May 25, the spot market saw a capital outflow of $158.93 million and an inflow of $141.42 million, resulting in a net outflow.

This divergence is significant as it indicates that while some whales are accumulating, broader market participants are still continuing to exit positions.

Therefore, the short-term price structure continues to be pressured by ongoing profit-taking or repositioning activities.

Even as staking confidence continues to grow, unless inflows consistently exceed outflows, price performance will remain subdued. Currently, selling signals still persist, undermining the positive impact of on-chain bullish events.

Is SOL ready to break through, or will it suffer more pain?

Although the accumulation and staking by whales indicate long-term confidence, the dominance of long liquidations and ongoing capital outflows suggest recent vulnerabilities.

Unless SOL breaks through the resistance level of $193 with strong momentum and improved capital inflows, upside potential remains limited.

If leveraged longs continue to be wiped out, traders should prepare for further consolidation or downside.