Bitcoin has once again become the focus of the cryptocurrency market, not only because its price hovers near historical highs but also due to strategic maneuvers taking place behind the scenes. Strategy recently purchased 4,020 bitcoins at a cost of about $427 million, prompting speculation about a potential rise. However, market opinions seem divided. Although Bitcoin's price remains above $109,000, investors are currently closely monitoring on-chain trends, liquidation data, and whale movements for clues on the next directional move.
Smart money or retail money?
Glassnode's latest insights reveal a key shift: The group holding over 10,000 BTC (the largest market participants) has entered a net distribution zone, scoring around 0.3. This is in stark contrast to the trend earlier this year when whales led accumulation during price increases.
Other groups, such as holders with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC and holders with 100 to 1,000 BTC, are also slowing down. Meanwhile, wallets holding 10 to 100 BTC and less than 1 BTC continue to buy wildly. This further indicates that the leading position on the wallet size curve is declining. This means that retail investors are buying on dips, while whales may be taking profits or analyzing upcoming volatility.
What does the liquidation heat map illustrate?
Kingfisher's liquidation chart provides another layer of insight. Bitcoin is currently priced around $109,000, with significant increases in long liquidations below the levels of $109,000, $108,500, and $107,000. This suggests that a potential liquidity grab may be brewing, driven by leveraged long positions facing the risk of being completely liquidated.
It is noteworthy that above the current BTC price, the levels of short liquidations appear weak, indicating a reduction in upward squeezing momentum. When correlated with the distribution of large holders, it can be seen that short-term downward volatility may not only occur but is statistically more favorable. However, it is worth mentioning that such volatility typically resets leverage and provides a firmer foundation for sustained upward movements.
Bitcoin (BTC) price analysis:
Bitcoin's price fell by 0.40% today to $109,222.37, but it is still up 3.37% over the past week. The market cap is $2.17 trillion, slightly down week-over-week, while the 24-hour trading volume surged to $50.45 billion. Prices fluctuated between $107,609.56 and $110,376.88, with significant short-term volatility. We anticipate a pullback before the next historical peak (possibly around $113,000).