Author: Matt Crosby
Compilation and Organization: BitpushNews
After a period of volatility, Bitcoin has now reclaimed the $100,000 mark and set a new historical high, injecting new confidence into the market. But with rising prices, a key question arises: Are the most experienced and successful holders of Bitcoin—long-term holders—beginning to sell?
This article will analyze how on-chain data reveals the behavior of long-term holders, and whether the recent profit-taking is a cause for concern or merely a healthy component of the Bitcoin market cycle.
Signs of profit-taking have emerged
Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) provides immediate insight into realized profits across the network. Focusing on the past few weeks, we can clearly observe a rising trend in profit realization. The clustering of green bars indicates that a considerable number of investors are selling Bitcoin to realize profits, especially after prices rose from the $74,000–$75,000 range to a new high of over $100,000.
Figure 1: Spent Output Profit Ratio indicates significant profit realization recently
However, while this may raise concerns about resistance above in the short term, it must be understood within a broader on-chain context. This behavior is not uncommon in bull markets and cannot be solely taken as a signal of a market top.
Supply from long-term holders continues to grow
Supply from long-term holders refers to the total amount of Bitcoin held by wallets that have been held for more than 155 days. Despite the price surge, this metric continues to rise. This trend does not necessarily indicate that new buying activity is occurring; rather, it suggests that Bitcoin is 'aging' into long-term holding status over time, without being transferred or sold.
Figure 2: The supply from long-term holders has significantly increased
In other words, many investors who bought in late 2024 or early 2025 are still holding their coins, transitioning into long-term holders. This is a healthy dynamic typically seen in the early or mid stages of a bull market and does not yet show signs of large-scale distribution.
HODL Waves Analysis
To delve deeper, we used HODL Waves data, which stratifies by wallet holding age. Focusing on wallets that have held for 6 months or longer, we find that over 70% of Bitcoin supply is currently controlled by medium to long-term holders.
Figure 3: HODL Waves analysis shows that medium to long-term investors hold the majority of Bitcoin
Interestingly, although this ratio remains high, it has begun to decline slightly, indicating that some long-term holders may be selling, even though the supply from long-term holders continues to grow. The main driver of long-term supply growth seems to be short-term holders gradually 'aging' into the 155-day holding period, rather than large-scale purchases of new funds.
Figure 4: The rate of change in supply from long-term holders is inversely related to Bitcoin price
By using raw data provided by the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API, we analyzed the rate of change in long-term holder balances categorized by wallet holding age. When this metric declines significantly, it has historically coincided with market tops. Conversely, when this metric rises sharply, it often corresponds to market bottoms and deep accumulation phases.
Short-term changes and distribution ratio
To improve the precision of these signals, data can be further segmented by comparing 'recent market entrants (0–1 month)' with 'mid-term holders (1–5 years)'. This age distribution comparison can provide more frequent and real-time insights into distribution behavior.
Figure 5: The holding age distribution ratio offers valuable market insights
We found that when the ratio of 1–5 year holders to new holders declines sharply, it historically coincides with Bitcoin price tops. Conversely, when this ratio rises rapidly, indicating more Bitcoin flowing into the hands of more experienced investors, it often heralds significant price increases.
Changes in long-term investor behavior are one of the most effective ways to assess market sentiment and the sustainability of price fluctuations. Historical data shows that long-term holders often outperform short-term traders by buying during panic and holding for the long term. By analyzing the age distribution structure of Bitcoin, we can more accurately capture market tops and bottoms without relying on price trends or short-term sentiment.
Conclusion
Currently, long-term holders are exhibiting only slight selling behavior, far from the scale seen at past market tops. There is indeed some profit realization, but the pace appears to be completely manageable, reflecting a healthy market environment.
Considering the current bull market phase and the participation of institutional and retail investors, the data suggests that we are still in a structurally strong phase, with further price upside potential in the context of ongoing inflows of new funds.
