📉 $BTC （2025-05-25 07:30）｜Long/Short Trend Index: 35 / 100 (Bearish Dominance)

BTC has retraced for two consecutive days, breaking the short-term bullish structure. A MACD multi-period death cross has formed, RSI has significantly retreated, and the price has fallen below important moving average support, indicating a shift from a bullish to a bearish market.

🔹 15-Minute Chart: Price is under downward pressure, with the center of gravity continuously declining; after the MACD death cross, the green bars are expanding, RSI has dropped below 25, short-term momentum is extremely weak, and no stop-loss pattern has appeared.

🔹 1-Hour Chart: The MACD death cross continues, the bars have turned green and strengthened, RSI hovers below 40, showing weak oscillation and consolidation, with the price operating below the moving averages, establishing a weak structure.

🔹 4-Hour Chart: K-line has continuously fallen below the MA7 and MA25 support levels, MACD is turning downward, and RSI has dropped to 48, the previous upward channel has been broken, and a bearish trend has been preliminarily established.

🔹 Daily Chart: A large bearish engulfing candle was formed yesterday, the MACD fast line has turned, and the price has deviated from the short-term moving average system. If today does not recover above 107,500, it will confirm a phase top.

🔹 Weekly Chart: The weekly structure is still in a strong upward channel, but there are clear signs of RSI retreating from high levels. If this week closes below 108,000, it will constitute a slight bearish signal.

📊 Technical Indicator Observation:

(1) MACD multi-period death cross resonance, with 15m/1H/4H all showing a downward trend, indicating significant weakening momentum;

(2) RSI has retreated across the board, with 15 minutes falling into the extremely oversold area (23.89), and 1 hour showing weakness without a strong rebound signal;

(3) Bollinger Bands show multi-period expansion, with prices falling below the middle line and testing the lower line, indicating short-term inertia downward risk;

(4) Trading volume has significantly increased, with rebounds lacking volume, and bearish dominance is evident.

🌐 Brief on Macro News:

(1) 🇺🇸 The U.S. Department of Homeland Security restricts international students, suppressing sentiment in technology, education, and employment, increasing the appeal of safe-haven assets;

(2) 🇺🇸 Trump threatens to increase taxes on Apple and the EU, reigniting market concerns over U.S.-China/U.S.-EU trade frictions, suppressing risk asset preferences;

(3) 📈 The latest data shows U.S. Treasury yields fluctuating higher, with the 10Y yield returning to 4.54%, putting pressure on risk assets;

(4) 📊 On-chain data shows an increase in net inflows for BTC, with investors showing evident short-term profit-taking behavior, and on-chain sentiment is bearish.