From 2024 to 2025, Bitcoin reaches a historic high, institutional ETF capital flows in continuously, and traditional media cheer, as if 'the crypto world is welcoming spring again.'
Strangely, on-chain lacks heat, altcoins are not rising, TVL is declining, DeFi is lifeless, and even ETH is not rising as much as Bitcoin.
Why has this round of Bitcoin skyrocketing failed to drive a general rise in the entire crypto market?
The answer actually has only one keyword: ETF.
1. This is not a comprehensive bull market, but a BTC solo bull market 'fostered' by ETFs.
The core driving force behind this round of rise is the approval of the US version of the spot Bitcoin ETF and increased trading volume.
Traditional giants like BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK are entering;
Wall Street funds buy BTC through ETFs, with large amounts, concentrated, and compliant;
Daily net inflows exceed 100 million USD, directly pushing up Bitcoin prices.
But the key point is: these ETFs only buy BTC, not any other coins.
Traditional capital enters regulated compliant asset pools, and what they can buy is:
BTC;
Possible future ETH (if ETFs are approved);
Others? Temporarily non-compliant, cannot be allocated.
So the structure of this round of rise is inherently 'Bitcoin's solo dance.'
2. Why hasn’t there been an outflow of funds from altcoins?
In past bull markets, after BTC took off, funds would gradually spill over to:
ETH;
L2 (Polygon, Arbitrum, Optimism);
DeFi (Aave, Curve, Uniswap);
New narratives (AI coins, SocialFi, MEME, etc.);
But this time there isn't. There are four reasons:
ETFs are off-exchange products, do not stimulate on-chain interactions, on-chain is quiet, and heat has not risen.
Compliance restrictions lead to large funds being 'visible but not purchasable' for altcoins.
Retail investors have not fully returned, and the scale of on-chain users is still far below 2021.
Lack of a clear new narrative: AI chains, RWA, and Solana have some heat but have not yet broken through.
The result is: money goes into BTC, and cannot be 'passed down.'
3. The 'indifference' of ETH and altcoins is actually a signal of structural risk.
If the entire ecosystem's activity is only supported by a single asset point, then:
Although Bitcoin prices are at new highs, on-chain data is 'inflated';
ETH passively follows the rise, but trading depth declines, and dominance continues to decrease;
The performance of altcoins is seriously differentiated, with hotspots quickly rotating and lacking sustainability;
MEME coins are 'used and discarded,' and the on-chain 'capital pool - airdrop - exit' model frequently occurs.
The entire market shows a structural divergence where 'ETFs are rising, but on-chain is shrinking.'
4. So when might it be the turn for altcoins?
Funds flow from BTC to altcoins, requiring two conditions to be met simultaneously:
BTC dominance peaks and turns (indicating BTC can no longer rise, funds begin to seek new targets);
On-chain narratives restart, the number of active users increases (indicating retail and speculative traders have returned);
Possible specific catalysts include:
ETH spot ETF approval (large funds can enter ETH);
New hotspots emerging (such as RWA or on-chain AI applications exploding);
BTC enters a high-level oscillation zone, temporarily losing its dominant position.
At that time, 'the king capital of the ETF era' may finally 'descend.'
5. Conclusion: It’s not that the bull market hasn’t come, it’s that the bull market hasn't come to you yet.
This round of rise is not the public heat wave of 2021, but a repricing of financial assets in 2024.
ETFs have brought prosperity to Bitcoin, but cannot bring a comprehensive recovery to the ecosystem.
The entire market is being rewritten by 'compliant capital.'
So at this moment, what investors need is not 'chasing up or chasing hotspots,' but:
Calmly observe the changes in BTC's dominance;
Pre-select structurally high-quality 'relay runners';
Waiting for 'secondary diffusion' after ETFs.
A true bull market is not just about rising funds, but about users returning.