#### 📉 Immediate Facts (Today)
1. Decline of -2.06% to $108,980 → First serious correction after the rise of 2025.
2. Trading volume $64.97B (2.99% of market cap) → High liquidity indicates institutional selling.
3. Whale Flows:
- 18,244 BTC sold versus 23,088 BTC bought → Net buy +4,844 BTC (Accumulation signal).
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#### 🔍 3 Crucial Indicators Explain the Situation
1. Critical support levels:
- $105,000 (Strong support tested 3 times in 2025).
- $99,500 (Last defense line before a trend change).
2. Technical Indicators:
- RSI 58 (not yet reached oversold) → Room for further decline.
- MACD about to cross negative → Warning of continued correction.
3. Historical Context:
- After each halving (the last in April 2024), BTC experiences a correction of 20-30% before rising.
- Current correction is only -2% → Minor compared to previous patterns.
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#### 🎯 Smart Trading Strategies (For All Patterns)
| Strategy | Entry Point | Stop Loss | Targets | Time Frame |
|-------------------------|---------------------|------------------|--------------------|-------------------|
| Cumulative Buy | $107,000-$105,000 | $102,000 | $120,000 → $150,000 | 3-6 Months |
| Range Trading | $108,000-$112,000 | $107,000 | $110,000 | Days |
| Hedging Sale | Above $112,000 | $114,000 | $105,000 | Weeks |
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#### ⚡ Realistic Forecasts (With Odds)
1. Base Scenario (60%):
- Continued correction to $105,000 then rebound → Resumption of the uptrend.
- Driver: Institutional buying at support levels.
2. Bullish Scenario (25%):
- Break above $112,000 → Surpassing previous peak of $112,000 → New uptrend.
3. Bearish Scenario (15%):
- Break below $99,500 → Drop to $85,000-$90,000 (Historical buying opportunity).
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#### 💡 Insights Only Professionals Know
- Adjusted "SOPR" indicator: Indicates that most current buyers entered at $95,000-$100,000 → Strong support in this area.
- "Hash Ribbons" ratio: Still a buy signal → Network's fundamental strength is intact.
- Warning:
- If the price drops below $99,500 with trading volume >$100B → Trend change.
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#### 📌 Practical Recommendations for the Current Phase
✅ For Investors:
- Buying in batches at $107K → $105K → $100K (Safe average entry price).
✅ For Traders:
- Exploiting the range $105K-$112K with Limit Orders.
✅ For Large Portfolios:
- Allocate 5-10% for buying at $100K as a hedge against inflation.
> "Bitcoin's correction is not a crash... It's a test of smart buyers' strength."
Summary:
This correction is healthy and necessary for the continuation of the uptrend. The best buying opportunity will be at $105,000 or lower.