On May 22, 2025, outside the Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Virginia, protesters held up signs saying 'Crypto Corruption', while inside, 220 'whales' holding millions of dollars worth of TRUMP tokens were waiting to dine with the former president. At the same time, the price of TRUMP tokens experienced an absurd roller coaster: at 5 PM Beijing time on the 22nd, the price violently surged from $14 to $16, only to drop back to $14 by 4 AM on the 23rd before the dinner had even started. Behind this farce, an ultimate game is unfolding regarding 'market signals' and 'real events'—does fact change the market, or does the market fabricate facts?
1. Trump's Dinner: A Perfect Experiment of 'Expectation Overdraft'
1. The 'FOMO Frenzy' on the Eve of the Dinner
According to on-chain data, within 48 hours after the dinner news was released, TRUMP token trading volume surged by 300%, with the average holding cost of the 220 'whales' reaching $1.78 million, while the token price once skyrocketed by 50%. Ironically, when the dinner officially began on the evening of the 22nd US time, the price had already retreated— the market had already harvested in the 'expectation narrative'.
Key Logical Chain
- Signal Propagation > Fact Occurrence: Price peaks occur during the news diffusion period (Beijing time on the 22nd), not when the event takes place (US time on the evening of the 22nd).
- Liquidity Trap: Despite TRUMP's daily trading volume exceeding $3.8 billion, the spot depth is less than $5 million, and the market maker can control the price with just $20 million.
2. The 'Self-Fulfilling Prophecy' of Political Narratives
The Trump team ties token holdings to political resources (such as White House tour rights), essentially securitizing 'social capital'. This model relies on continuous hot topic stimulation; once the narrative stagnates, the price collapses—just like how TRUMP fell again after the proposal by Democratic lawmakers to ban 'crypto corruption' on May 23.
2. Do you still remember the ETF approval: The 'Information Arbitrage War' behind the SEC website crash?
2024 ETF Frenzy: Delays, Congestion, and Expectation Gaps: When the SEC's official website briefly crashed due to ETF approval news, the market had already priced in the information 24 hours in advance through 'internal leaks', and institutions sold off on the positive news.
Market Laws
- Buy Expectations, Sell Facts: When the probability of ETF approval rises to 90%, the price increase has already overdrafted by 80%.
- Profits from Information Asymmetry: Bloomberg analysts predict approval progress through regulatory documents, while retail investors are trapped in a 'FOMO chasing - panic cutting' cycle.
3. The 'Narrative Economics' of the Crypto Market: Who is Creating Signals?
1. The 'Trinity' of Market Makers, Media, and Algorithms
- Market Maker Control: 80% of the TRUMP tokens are controlled by Trump's camp, and unlock events can precisely create selling pressure.
- Media Amplifiers: 'Breaking news' from institutions like Cointelegraph and Bloomberg often become tools for price manipulation, such as 'SEC delays ETF approval' triggering panic.
- Algorithmic Resonance: Social platforms amplify FOMO sentiment through recommendation algorithms, creating 'self-reinforcing trends'.
2. The Shift from 'Fact-Driven' to 'Signal-Driven'
When market fluctuations no longer rely on tangible progress but rather on 'pricing of possibilities', signals become facts. For example:
Trump's Tweet: A statement like 'America will become the crypto capital' can cause SOL to rise 70% in a single day.
Conclusion: The 'Truman Show' of the Crypto Market
In this virtual theater constructed by expectations, signals, and algorithms, real events are merely a footnote to the narrative. When Trump raises his glass at the dinner, the market has already turned to the next hot topic—perhaps a SEC tweet or an ambiguous policy draft. The only thing investors can be sure of is the uncertainty itself.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice, the market has risks, and decisions should be made cautiously.