Crow's conjecture

1. The network is slow and expensive, users have left.
Transferring Ethereum is like a crowded train station during the Spring Festival—it's unbearably crowded and extremely expensive. Transaction fees can easily be dozens of dollars, and waiting half an hour is normal. Now these new public chains are like high-speed trains, processing tens of thousands of transactions in a second, with almost free transaction fees. Developers are flocking to new chains to start projects; who would stay in the old, broken, and small ones?

2. The government is targeting DeFi.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has recently been focusing on various decentralized exchanges, looking for violations. If all these apps are deemed illegal, thousands of apps for saving, lending, and trading on Ethereum will be shut down, and the hundreds of billions locked inside could evaporate overnight.

3. People holding coins are collectively withdrawing their funds.
Currently, 26 million ETH are locked up earning interest (accounting for 21% of the total), and it may be released for free withdrawal in 2025. Imagine if the bank suddenly said, 'Everyone saving money, come and withdraw,' everyone would rush to sell coins, potentially crashing the market by 3 billion dollars a day, causing prices to plummet.

4. Competitors are too strong.
The speed of new public chain apps is 10,000 times that of Ethereum, and xxapp transaction fees are 20% of the original. Now new projects prefer to develop on these chains, just like all merchants have rushed to the newly opened Wanda Plaza, leaving the old mall with empty shops. The number of Ethereum developers has plummeted by 37% this year; it's a warning of a downturn.

5. The interest-bearing Ponzi scheme is about to collapse.
Many people are earning interest on their stored ETH and then reinvesting it on other platforms (called 're-staking'). This nested operation looks like it yields high returns but actually carries explosive risks. In March, a platform was hacked, locking up 80,000 ETH that couldn't be retrieved. As soon as one major platform collapses, everyone will panic and run.

6. NFTs are completely dead.
The floor price of bored apes has dropped from 3 million to 200,000, and the trading volume in the NFT market is now just a fraction of its peak. The Ethereum transaction fees that were previously supported by speculative image trading have now fallen by 90%. It's like souvenir sales at tourist attractions that aren't moving; all the vendors have packed up.

7. The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates.
If U.S. deposit interest rates rise to 5%, many people will withdraw money from cryptocurrency to deposit in banks. When the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in 2022, ETH dropped from 30,000 RMB to 6,000; if it happens again, the drop might be even more severe.

Summary
Ethereum is now like a washed-up internet celebrity—its technology is being outperformed by newcomers, its profitable business is under regulatory scrutiny, and its old fans are still holding on. Although the price seems high, there are a ton of underlying problems.

New projects have all gone to competitors.

Interest on stored coins is getting lower and lower.

Transaction fee revenue is quickly becoming insufficient to sustain miners.
Historically, ETH has dropped from 14,000 to 600; if it hits a landmine this time, an 80% drop wouldn’t be surprising.

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