Bitcoin has officially entered "uncharted territory"! In early trading today, the price of BTC soared to $111,800, breaking the $109,600 record set in January, and the market value exceeded $2.2 trillion. Although bulls are strongly in control, market sentiment has not entered a frenzied range. Analysts warn that short-term risks of a callback still need to be guarded against, as the long-term trend depends on the game between short-term holders (STH) and ETF speculators.
Crypto analyst Axel Adler points out that the sustainability of this round of market trends is closely related to the STH MVRV (market value to realized value ratio) indicator. Currently, the indicator has not yet broken through the +1 standard deviation "green line threshold". Typically, levels above this are considered a "super rebound" signal.
In addition, in the first three rebounds of this bull market, the price of BTC rose by an average of 46% after breaking through this threshold. If calculated based on the current price, the high point this time may reach $154,000, but the current market environment may inhibit this increase. Adler predicts that when the price approaches $126,000, although STH may still be willing to hold at high prices, ETF buyers in the $84,000 cost range may choose to sell off on a large scale and trigger a callback.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has formed a healthy trend of "rising lows + moderate increase in trading volume" since breaking through $100,000 in May, standing firmly above the 200-day SMA ($93,400) and EMA ($89,100), with strong macro support. At the same time, after BTC broke through the $103,600 resistance level, the upside space has been further opened, and there is no obvious pressure from trapped funds in the short term.
However, the current RSI daily indicator has entered the overbought range, and a rapid increase in financing rates may become a short-term braking point. The market focus is concentrated on the $115,000 psychological level. If it stabilizes with volume, it is expected to launch an impact towards $120,000-$130,000; otherwise, $103,600 and $100,000 will become the "moat" that bulls must defend.
It is worth noting that Bitcoin has strengthened against the trend in the macro environment of soaring US Treasury yields and sharp declines in US stocks, further verifying its positioning as a "traditional asset hedging tool." Although expectations of the Fed's interest rate hikes are rising, the negative correlation between cryptocurrencies and US stocks is increasing, and funds are shifting from risky assets to scarce digital gold.
Conclusion:
In summary, Bitcoin has successfully entered the "$100,000 level" club. This feat is not only a price milestone, but also a severe test of the pressure resistance of the entire market structure.
The patience of short-term holders and the capital flow of the ETF market will be key variables in determining whether this round of market trend is a "rest-stop callback" or a "trend reversal."
Therefore, at this critical point where market greed and fear are intertwined, maintaining rational judgment is far more important than blindly chasing highs and killing lows.
After Bitcoin breaks through 110,000, will you choose to take profits and leave the market, or add positions to gamble on the 126,000 level? Short-term callback or long-term bull market, which judgment do you prefer? Let's talk about your trading strategy in the comments section!