Bitcoin's price has once again surpassed the $110,000 mark, and the drums of the bull market are echoing throughout the network. But the most important question to ask at this moment is not 'how much more can it rise', but: is it too late to enter now?
This is what everyone thinking about the crypto market from a 'value investing' perspective is struggling with. Bitcoin, this highly volatile, controversial digital asset that is easily proclaimed 'dead', is it really suitable for long-term layout? Do you still think it is just a bubble game of passing the buck?
If you are still questioning whether Bitcoin has the core of 'value investing', perhaps it is time to change your perspective.
1. What is 'value investing' in Bitcoin? It's not about low volatility, but about asymmetry.
"Value investing" is not just about dividends, distributions, and P/E ratios. Its core has never been about "conservatism," but rather – taking limited risks for great returns, seizing undervalued opportunities, and waiting for market corrections.
In the world of Bitcoin, this kind of 'asymmetry' is more apparent than any asset.
Looking back at the past decade:
2011: The price fell from $33 to $2, a drop of 94%, but subsequently rose to over $10,000;
2013-2015: Mt. Gox collapsed, and the price fell from $1,160 to $150, with the media lamenting 'Bitcoin is dead', yet three years later, it surpassed $20,000;
2017-2018: The bubble burst, falling from $20,000 to $3,200, a drop of 83%, then restarted its rise to nearly $70,000;
2021-2022: From $69,000, it plummeted to $15,000, with events like the FTX explosion and Luna collapse unfolding like 'black swans', causing the on-chain to nearly freeze. But now, the price has returned to $110,000 and stands in the core area of the global asset stage.
After each crash, it's a quiet opening of the asymmetry window – yet at these opportunities, the vast majority of people are fleeing in panic.
The backtracking model and on-chain data calculation graph provided by Mlion.ai show: during every period of 'extreme fear', non-zero addresses actually continue to grow, and capital lurking behavior significantly increases.
This is not an emotional game; this is the victory of cognitive difference.
2. Where does value come from? It's not cash flow; it's technological scarcity + network effects.
You might ask: Bitcoin has no factories, no products, and no dividends, what right does it have to claim 'intrinsic value'?
We need to look at its valuation logic from two dimensions:
1. Scarcity and supply logic (supply side).
There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins;
Halving every four years;
The current annual inflation rate is already below that of gold and is expected to drop below 0.85%.
This is an algorithmic deflation structure that mathematically locks the supply ceiling. The S2F (Stock-to-Flow) model shows: after each halving, its value center will experience a structural uplift.
2020 halving → $69,000;
2024 halving → now has exceeded $110,000, still可能只是开始.
2. Network effects and user base (demand side).
Bitcoin is not an isolated 'coin'; it is an ever-growing value network. Currently, there are over 50 million non-zero addresses on-chain, with daily active addresses exceeding 910,000 by February 2025.
According to Metcalfe's Law (V ≈ k×N²), when the number of users doubles, the network value will grow exponentially. This explains why every time an ETF is approved, a sovereign country adopts it, or exchanges expand, prices suddenly explode.
This is also a crucial signal point for Mlion.ai's 'address activation + capital inflow model' when tracking the core sectors of the next bull market. The intersection of supply and demand is the best entry point to identify 'value pits'.
3. Asymmetric structure: it may be wrong in the short term, but the long-term returns are 'superlinear'.
Can Bitcoin still fall? Of course.
But the key is: even if it temporarily retraces by 30%, you may lose part of your principal; but if it reaches a new high, you may gain multiple returns.
This is the classic 'odds logic' in value investing:
Loss limits are controllable: at most, the asset could drop 60-80%;
Profit limit is not restricted: it could rise from $10,000 to $300,000, $500,000, or even higher.
The expected value of risk-return is severely tilted; this is what is called 'asymmetric investment structure'.
IV. Is it too late to enter now? The key to which side time stands on depends on what mindset you use to make decisions.
Currently, Bitcoin's market cap has surpassed $2 trillion, exceeding traditional financial technology giants like Meta and Visa; the average daily trading volume of ETFs is over $2.5 billion, with major players like BlackRock and Fidelity continuously buying; on-chain address activity continues to hit new highs, and miner hash rates have reached new peaks.
If you only look at the price, indeed, it has risen a lot;
but if you look at the structure, you will find:
The ETF was just approved four months ago;
The halving just happened not long ago;
Altcoins have not fully exploded yet;
The global crypto adoption rate is still below 3%.
This is more like the latter part of the early cycle, not the end of the climax.
What you see now is price performance; but what really matters is the change in underlying structure. Mlion.ai's AI research report module is continuously tracking on-chain user expansion, ETF inflow rhythms, and derivative position distributions to provide investors with a clear basis for value judgment.
V. Conclusion: Bitcoin is a mirror, reflecting the boundaries of your understanding of 'value'.
In extremely volatile markets, the most precious thing is not prediction, but understanding structure, mastering logic, and adhering to long-termism.
The rise and fall of Bitcoin is just part of the cycle; the real return that belongs to you comes from whether you see the order hidden behind the chaos.
Value investing has never been about staying away from volatility, but rather finding the intersection between mispricing and asymmetry within volatility.
And Mlion.ai is that pair of eyes that helps you see the direction in the storm – it uses AI to understand data, strategy to interpret trends, and accompanies you in every decision you make.
Disclaimer: The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly risky, and investors should proceed with caution.