BTC broke new highs yesterday, how should we operate next?
The market situation is quite strange: BTC broke new highs, but there are not many altcoins following, most altcoins haven't even risen by 5%, it feels like nothing is happening. Although BTC is performing well, we cannot let our guard down. There are three bearish factors we must be aware of:
1. The unexpected improvement in the U.S. May PMI released yesterday, which may accelerate inflation in the coming months, unfavorable for interest rate cuts, posing a slight bearish impact.
2. Israel has been reported to conspire to raid Iranian nuclear facilities, and Iran has directly stated: the U.S. must 'leash its own dog'; if an attack occurs, the U.S. will be held responsible.
3. Yesterday, the U.S. House of Representatives approved legislation to reduce taxes and increase military spending. If passed, it will increase U.S. government debt by trillions of dollars and continue to expand the government deficit. As a result, U.S. Treasury prices will fall, pushing up yields. The rising yields on U.S. Treasuries pose a certain bearish impact on the crypto market.
To summarize the current situation in the crypto market: In an extremely poor macro environment: U.S. tariffs are bearish, U.S. stocks are set to fall, and U.S. Treasury yields are rising. Large institutions and companies are optimistic about BTC's future, continuously increasing their positions, and favorable policies are emerging, with a stablecoin bill about to be passed. If BTC surges, altcoins will follow suit, but once BTC corrects, altcoins will also drop back significantly. Investing is filled with contradictions; most of the time there are both opportunities and risks, it's all about how we grasp the main factors. Currently, favorable policies outweigh the macro bearish factors. Recently, it may be wise to take some profits, and I suggest maintaining a 70% position, primarily holding BTC with a small portion in altcoins.
