This is the worst of times in the crypto world, but it is also the best of times for Bitcoin buyers, on-chain P generals, and top airdrop players.
Written by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
'I lost over a million last year,' Xiao Su told Foresight News.
As a veteran investor in the crypto circle, he purchased many VC coins during the last bull market cycle. In 2021, Bitcoin once broke through 67,000 dollars, setting a historical high, causing numerous VC coins to rise significantly, some even outperforming Bitcoin; Xiao Su's first bucket of gold came from this.
However, the market is unpredictable. In this cycle, Xiao Su stumbled; since 2024, several VC coins he heavily invested in have performed poorly, continuously declining, and as a diamond hand, he couldn't hold on any longer and had to cut losses at lows. After several rounds of this, his cumulative profits have already been more than halved.
'Why is it so difficult to make money this time? Who exactly is making money in the market?' Xiao Su is very confused. In his view, in past bull market cycles, one could just close their eyes, lie down, and sleep to make money. Now it has become a necessity to 'run fast' to earn money. Market participants such as VCs, market makers, exchanges, project parties, retail investors, and airdrop studios are all facing their own significant new challenges.
Xiao Su's experience is not unique; not only he, but some well-known crypto VC firms have recently announced their transformations and admitted that the returns from this round of primary investments have been very disappointing.
However, from the history of cryptocurrencies, 2024 to 2025 is destined to be a magnificent year. The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs has led traditional financial institutions to swarm in, and after Trump's re-election, crypto policies are entering an unprecedented easing environment, a series of favorable factors have pushed Bitcoin's price from a low of 15,000 dollars to over 100,000 dollars, setting a new historical high.
Investors' longing for a frenzied bull market has reached its peak.
However, the other major leader in the market, Ethereum, shattered investors' dreams. Ethereum has not even reached a historical high in this cycle, and the two major price boosters in the past, DeFi and NFT, have not seen a resurgence. Its founder Vitalik and the Ethereum Foundation have faced considerable criticism. Amidst Ethereum's sluggish performance, narratives such as Layer 2, re-staking, and ZK have evaporated, with many related ecosystem tokens performing disappointingly.
The only hotspot—the craze for Meme coins, to some extent, is also retail investors venting their dissatisfaction over the high valuations of VC coins. The returns from VC coins have been mostly taken by VCs beforehand, leaving only retail investors to take over and face 'endless declines.'
However, in this more brutal 'casino', only a very small number of savvy traders, insider traders, and token issuing groups have made a fortune, while most retail investors chasing memes have suffered increasingly large losses in a series of lottery-style scratch-off events, ultimately realizing that the so-called wealth effect really only belongs to others' 'show-off shares'.
So who really is the winner? Foresight News interviewed multiple crypto practitioners in the field to find out their answers.
Bitcoin holders: Winning big.
Bitcoin buyers are undoubtedly reaping substantial profits in this cycle. On May 10, Bitcoin Magazine Pro data showed that after Bitcoin surpassed 100,000 dollars, only 0.55% of addresses were still in a loss state, indicating that most Bitcoin players in the market are in a profit state. As of the time of publication, Bitcoin has surpassed 110,000 dollars, setting a new historical high, and no one has lost money from buying Bitcoin; all buyers achieved profitability.
The NDV (NextGen Digital Venture) fund, established in 2022, is one of them. Its founder Jason (@jhy256) told Foresight News that the first phase of the NDV fund was cleared in February this year, with a total return of 3.75 times, and recently launched the financing for the second phase of the fund.
Jason has rich experience in the venture capital field, having worked at Huaxing Capital, Qiming Venture Partners, and other institutions. In 2023, at the age of 34, he chose to leave the family office Blue Pool Capital, co-founded by Jack Ma and Cai Chongxin, to establish NextGen Digital Venture.
Jason stated, 'In a broader world, there are still many external buy orders. Many institutions have not allocated even 0.1% of their funds; they might just start by buying 0.1%, which is not sensitive to price fluctuations. If traditional big money allocates 1% of their fund size to Bitcoin, it would be a very significant amount for this asset class.' He placed most of the fund's positions in GBTC in the first year, and last year he switched strategies to focus on stocks related to cryptocurrencies, such as Coinbase and Strategy. These moves undoubtedly hit the market trend perfectly.
When analyzing the rise of Bitcoin, he stated that the introduction of spot ETFs has played a significant role. 'Traditional financial money can flow directly from ETFs to BTC, which is also an important reason why BTC can continuously outperform many altcoins. Perhaps Trump’s election and token issuance will provide new opportunities for other digital currencies.'
In January 2024, the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs became a milestone event for this cycle. As of now, the total net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs has exceeded 42.7 billion dollars. Institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity have made significant purchases of Bitcoin spot ETFs, becoming clear winners in the market due to their early entry, low cost, and steady holding. These funds mainly come from hedge funds, pension funds, and family offices, marking the transition of the crypto market from retail speculation to institutional investment.
Moreover, various listed companies have also joined the Bitcoin buying army and have made a fortune.
The US-listed company Strategy, with its aggressive purchasing style, has not only seen a significant rise in stock price but also an astonishingly large unrealized gain. As of May 18, 2025, Strategy holds 576,230 Bitcoins, with a total purchase price of about 40.18 billion dollars, averaging around 69,726 dollars per Bitcoin. After Bitcoin surpassed 109,700 dollars, its unrealized gain once exceeded 23.039 billion dollars. The Japanese-listed company Metaplanet has cumulatively held 7,800 Bitcoins, with a historical average purchase price of 13.51 million yen per coin (approximately 94,165.7 million dollars). Based on a Bitcoin price of 109,000 dollars, Metaplanet's holdings have already seen an unrealized gain of 12.1 million dollars.
Since its inception, Bitcoin's long-term gains have not disappointed any diamond hand player. Even the Bitcoin held by El Salvador, which has continuously increased its holdings, has seen unrealized gains exceeding 357 million dollars.
Naturally, derivatives from BTC, such as mining machines, crypto infrastructure companies, and financial derivatives have also gained significantly. Taking Canaan Creative as an example, its financial report shows an 80.9% increase in revenue and a 312.5% increase in mining revenue in the fourth quarter of 2024; the company mentioned that customer orders for the first quarter of 2025 have already been booked into the second quarter, indicating a continuation of the momentum in mining machine sales.
Meme Big Winner: A single coin makes a million dollars.
'The total profit currently reached a hundredfold, mainly including profits from last year's AI, deSci, and TRUMP.' Yuyue told Foresight News.
Well-known on-chain KOL Yuyue seized the opportunity with TRUMP to make millions of dollars, and community images show that she spent 158,000 dollars to purchase TRUMP, with unrealized gains once exceeding 2 million dollars.
She entered the circle in March 2022, initially just looking for an internship. Later, through airdrops and community interactions, she met more people and reviewed market opportunities. Ultimately, when the opportunity arose, she was bold enough to increase her positions and eventually achieved great results.
In the past year, the most wealth-generating sector in the crypto world has undoubtedly been 'Meme'. Since the beginning of 2024, Meme coins have sparked an unprecedented wave in the crypto market. From WIF and BONK on the Solana chain to PEPE and TURBO on Ethereum, and quickly rising DEGEN and MOCHI on the Base chain, even Meme assets in the Bitcoin ecosystem, every emerging hotspot has rapidly attracted tens of thousands of retail investors and speculators.
Meme is no longer just entertainment; it has become a new experimental field for wealth distribution mechanisms. According to statistics from CoinGecko and Dune Analytics, in 2024, the total market capitalization of Meme coins soared from less than 2 billion dollars to over 60 billion dollars, with an annual increase of over 2900%. Among these, the market capitalization of Meme coins on the Solana chain alone accounts for more than 1/3. WIF once rose from an initial market cap of less than 1 million dollars to over 3 billion dollars, with early holders even achieving returns of over 100,000 times. A user purchased a new Meme coin BOME for less than 200 dollars in April 2024, and within just 72 hours, the account value skyrocketed to over 2 million dollars.
These Meme coins often lack a traditional technological background and do not even rely on complete project white papers. They can trigger millions of dollars in trading volume merely through a catchy slogan or a simple dog avatar.
The craziest Meme wealth effect belongs to the Meme coin TRUMP, which emerged before Trump officially took office. Traders like 0xSun, Da Yu, and Leng Jing made millions of dollars in profits from a single coin, igniting the entire crypto circle, and countless people were amazed. However, only a very few players have made such huge returns from a single coin. Position management and risk preference are also significant subjects.
Yuyue admitted that she is quite flexible in position management and has no long-held positions other than Bitcoin. In terms of trading style, 'Currently, there are the chain-sweeping faction and the second-stage faction, both styles are distinctly different, but I lean more towards the second-stage faction, which values narrative.'
She stated that market participants must have their own judgments about the underlying assets, for example, if focusing on the second stage, one needs to pay attention to narratives as well as market cap estimation ranges and trade based on these foundations. The narrative here is not something imagined but can be supported by candlestick charts and market movements.
On-chain OG player 'Bitcoin Giant Factory' has also profited significantly from the Meme coin gold rush. He told Foresight News, 'In the last cycle, I made tens of times high returns in just a few weeks with SHIB, starting my on-chain trading journey. In the recent one or two years of Meme trading, I have made a profit of several million, seizing opportunities in ORDI, GOAT, TRUMP, and other targets.'
However, obtaining high returns is not easy. 'Those around me who have achieved high returns often invest considerable effort in on-chain research and time; that's what they deserve, which most people may not be able to do,' he lamented.
Trading Meme coins tests players' skills more than trading mainstream coins. Bitcoin giants indicate that Meme trading must grasp big figures, major trends, and significant narratives; major hot topics are also very crucial. Searching for keywords or contract addresses on Twitter can also be used to observe short-term heat.
His profits from Meme coins will also be used to purchase Bitcoin. 'Currently, Bitcoin accounts for 85% of my portfolio, Ethereum and BNB around 13%, with some other altcoin Meme coins making up the rest.'
The myth of wealth from Meme coins temporarily dimmed under the sluggish market conditions, and large-scale sharing was rarely seen on social media. Numerous Meme coin players, harboring dreams of getting rich, repeatedly faced setbacks in a series of lottery events, anxiously fluctuating between zero and selling off. Some chose to return to mainstream altcoins, while others ventured into other lanes to mine wealth.
Perhaps every Meme player who is reluctant to leave is waiting for the time when the altcoin market completely warms up. Some market players, through effective strategies and perseverance, have achieved great results; they are the airdrop players.
Heavenly airdrop: From nationwide celebration to competitive gaming.
'In 2023, the Arbitrum airdrop became the project with the highest return for me, approximately 30 million yuan.' The well-known airdrop player Feng Mi told Foresight News.
He has over a decade of experience in traditional finance, having worked in hedge trading and investment banking. He entered the crypto circle in 2017 due to ICOs and discovered opportunities for chasing airdrops through DeFi in 2020, after which he could not stop; his wealth accumulation speed even far surpassed mining or trading coins.
Afterwards, 'In 2024, Wormhole brought higher paper profits, with the corresponding value at TGE even exceeding ARB. Unfortunately, due to poor timing in claiming and selling, it ultimately resulted in only a brilliant paper profit with limited actual gains.'
The golden age of airdrops is not far from us. In the crypto bull market from 2020 to 2021, the surge of DeFi, NFTs, and Layer 1/Layer 2 projects provided fertile ground for chasing airdrops. Airdrop activities from DeFi protocols like Uniswap, 1inch, and dYdX often brought thousands of dollars in profits, attracting a large number of retail investors and early studios to participate. During this period, the threshold for chasing airdrops was relatively low, allowing ordinary users to participate through simple wallet operations or social tasks. That was indeed the golden age of chasing airdrops. At its peak, top player Feng Mi told Foresight News, 'When ENS issued tokens, airdrop rewards for a single account exceeded 100,000 yuan, and multiple accounts directly became wealthy; during the PSP (Paraswap) airdrop, a single account started at 10,000 dollars.'
Subsequently, the chasing airdrop industry gradually shifted from wild growth to specialization. Studios improved efficiency through batch account creation and automated scripts. However, even so, the industry still has plenty of airdrop wealth effects.
Airdrops from testnet projects like Aptos and Sui further fueled the craze for chasing airdrops, with some studios obtaining millions of dollars in profits through 'multi-account strategies'. To prevent 'witch attacks' (Sybil Attacks), project parties generally raised the thresholds for airdrops, such as introducing identity verification, on-chain behavior analysis, or community contribution requirements. This has made it more challenging for retail investors to chase airdrops, while studios with technological advantages and resources gradually dominate.
Feng Mi candidly shared his insights, stating that first and foremost, choosing the right project is the most important. 'Airdrops that can truly change lives must come from projects with products, innovation, capital, and vision. It's not something that can be compensated by brushing through 100 low-quality events. It's better to heavily invest in 3 promising ones than to spread the net over 30 uncertain projects.' Secondly, participants must learn to understand the types of people they want to filter out, grasp the logic of agreements, and be very clear about the overall situation. The more one resembles a 'real user' and adopts the 'developer's perspective', the more likely they are to be counted in the distribution rules and reward models of high-quality weight in the future. Furthermore, just like the sensitivity of professional traders, one must be decisive when it’s time to cut losses, and letting go should also be clean and decisive.
In his view, chasing airdrops is not an isolated act but a typical structural arbitrage method. Participants can regard chasing airdrops as a 'left hand' for stable earnings: low cost, high odds, exchanging time for opportunities. At the same time, they can use their 'right hand' to allocate positions in the secondary market, holding foundational assets like BTC/ETH, or boldly betting on some long-term high-volatility speculative projects like memes. The left side seeks certainty, while the right side gambles on uncertainty. 'Currently, this is the combination method I see as more stable and capable of crossing cycles.'
The airdrop sector remains hot in 2024. Projects like Starknet, Hyperliquid, Magic Eden, and Pudgy Penguins distributed hundreds of millions of dollars worth of tokens through airdrops. Subsequently, the market situation changed drastically, shifting from a peak to a trough. Those players who chose to sell at the beginning maintained significant profits, while those who chose to hold onto their investments became the 'quick exit players' in the liquidity exit.
In response, Feng Mi reflected, 'Chasing airdrops has never been a mechanical operation on an assembly line. Behind each account, each transaction, and each project token are my personal interactions, records, waiting, and even losses. They are not just numbers; they are like a series of strategic and lucky games, infused with intense emotional investment. A project has poured a lot of effort and time, gas, and principal into it, and because of this, it is an emotional investment. But it is precisely this 'emotion' that has become my biggest failure in this round: being reluctant to sell when I should, and hesitating when I should leave. As a result, I handed over the profits that I had already secured back to the market, just accompanying it for a while.'
Market players have winners and losers, and the winners are always a minority. Subsequently, whether individuals or studios, they have repeatedly faced backlash. When airdrops from zkSync, LayerZero, etc., were released, the market was filled with cries of despair, with small retail investors receiving very few airdrops, and airdrop studios facing heavy losses, even being forced to shut down. Project parties were heavily criticized, but they maintained a strong stance, leading to most projects in the market subsequently trying to imitate, issuing fewer or even no airdrops.
Feng Mi told Foresight News, 'The era of mindless chasing airdrops has long ended. The window for everyone to easily earn their first bucket of gold from the chain has closed; it is no longer a phase where simply clicking a few buttons can earn rewards.'
When players generally feel it's hard to profit, persisting becomes even more difficult. Many players miss out on wealth opportunities due to a lack of patience. Feng Mi analyzed that the root cause many players can't persevere lies in 'delayed airdrops, continuous investment in gas fees, tedious interactions, increasingly formalized tasks, and rampant points. When rewards are long overdue, doubt gradually erodes execution ability, leading to complaints. But the real big results often hide behind moments when you almost give up or think it’s ineffective. You have to believe that results never happen first; rather, they are believed first before being realized.
Feng Mi also shared his failed cases during the chasing airdrop process, 'I did a lot of BTC staking interactions on Babylon, investing considerable funds and attention. The result was that the airdrop distribution was extremely limited, and the returns were dismal.' Additionally, he heavily invested in the entire Move ecosystem, including Aptos, where he invested over 4 million dollars at its peak market cap, only to see the entire ecosystem falter with no standout projects, and the official direction and operational capabilities were lacking.
Airdrops also come with various ups and downs.
However, compared to buying coins, chasing airdrops may still be one of the few sectors where one can make big profits from a small initial investment. Multi-account strategies and premium account strategies are still practical means, but they also require more attention to methods and approaches. The game of outsmarting the project parties still tests the cognition and execution ability of airdrop players.
Conclusion
The only constant in the crypto market is change. A day in the crypto circle is like a year in the human world. Although this may seem exaggerated, it reflects the rapid speed of change. If you can't pinpoint or catch it, the opportunity is gone, which is undoubtedly the most torturous experience for those in the industry seeking more wealth.
However, the most fascinating part of the crypto circle is that every time market participants believe they have reached the end of the wealth effect, there will always be a certain unnoticed corner where something is thriving, nurturing for the rise, and through another astonishing wealth effect, continuously attracting curious young people to pour in and mine.
