Market overview
In the last 48 hours, the cryptocurrency market has recorded a strong widespread increase:
• Bitcoin (BTC) surpasses $111,000 – a record high in 2025.
• Major altcoins like SOL, TON, NEAR, AR have increased 15–25%.
• The meme coin group like PEPE, DOGE, FLOKI has surged 30–50%, attracting speculative capital.
The influx of capital is too fast, pushing prices to unprecedented highs, but at the same time, it raises the risk of a strong correction due to technical and psychological factors entering extreme territory.
Clear warning signs
1. The entire market is overbought:
• The RSI on the 1H and 4H frames of many coins is above 80.
• Continuous upward candles without deep corrections, accompanied by decreasing volume – a sign of peak distribution.
2. Funding rate and leverage are too high:
• Funding rates on derivative exchanges have reached record highs → investors are heavily leaning toward Long.
• Open interest skyrockets → many leveraged positions are at risk of being liquidated if the market reverses.
3. Widespread FOMO psychology:
• Speculative capital is pouring into meme coins at a rapid pace.
• Coins that haven't had a chance to rise are also being FOMO bought, regardless of weak fundamentals.
4. Whale activity:
• On-chain data shows that many large wallets have started transferring assets to exchanges – a sign of preparing to take profits.
Short-term forecast
With the current data, the likelihood of a correction tonight or early tomorrow (Vietnam time) is very high. Fast 'flush' drops of 5–10% across the market to reset leverage is a highly probable scenario.
In particular, Bitcoin has continuously increased by more than 10% over 3 days without any significant correction – something that is unsustainable given that all technical indicators signal extreme overbought conditions.
Defensive strategy at this stage
• Proactive profit-taking: If you are in profit, this is the time to lock in gains rather than continue FOMO.
• Do not open new Long positions: Any new positions at this time carry high risk.
• Monitor reversal signals in the H1 and H4 frames – if a large red candle appears with high volume, it could be the beginning of a correction.
• Only open Short positions when confirmed: Avoid entering early when the trend is still unclear.
Conclusion
The market is irrationally euphoric, and history has shown many times: when everyone believes the price can only go up, that is when the risk of correction is highest.
Act rationally – protect profits, maintain capital, and wait for safer opportunities.
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