In 2025, crypto asset investors are increasingly paying attention to a recurring event that can significantly impact prices: token unlocks. Only in the week of April 18 to 24, over 520 million dollars in value were unlocked, highlighting projects like TRUMP, ALT, PLUME, and Scroll.

But after all, what are these unlocks, why do they have such an impact on the market, and how can you prepare to take advantage of them (or protect yourself)? We will explain everything below.

What are Token Unlocks?

In many crypto networks, a significant portion of the tokens issued at the initial launch is not released immediately. Instead, they are locked for a period — usually for founders, early investors, or development teams. The goal? To prevent large volumes from being dumped into the market right after the launch, which could drastically lower prices.

These unlocks follow a schedule known as a vesting schedule, and can occur in two ways:

  • Cliff unlocks: large and specific releases, usually after months or years of being locked.

  • Linear unlocks: gradual releases over weeks or months.

When the time comes, these tokens are released for circulation. And that’s where the market impact can happen.

How Do Unlocks Affect Prices?

In economic theory, a sudden increase in supply, if not accompanied by a proportional increase in demand, tends to push prices down. With crypto tokens, it’s no different.

Let's look at some recent examples to better understand:

  • TRUMP: On April 21, 2025, 40 million TRUMP tokens (about 4% of total supply) were unlocked — equivalent to over $300 million. The price fell 23% in the week leading up to the event, reflecting fears of a massive sell-off. Interestingly, after the unlock, the token showed signs of recovery, with the community reacting positively to new statements from Trump.

  • ALT (Altlayer): Unlocked $30 million in tokens, with an inflation of nearly 8%. The price fell 10% in the week prior, impacted by fears that early investors would liquidate their positions.

  • PLUME: A smaller project that released $17 million in tokens in the same period. The price fell 6% before the unlock, with no signs of recovery shortly after.

  • Scroll (SCR): Released tokens valued at $0.21 each. The drop was 14% the week prior, exacerbated by a bad moment for the Layer-2 sector as a whole.

These examples show that the effect of a token unlock can vary based on the size of the unlock, market context, asset liquidity, and the strength of the supporting community.

Why Does the Market React So Much?

There are four main factors that explain the impact of token unlocks:

  1. Circulating Supply Increases: The more tokens enter circulation, the higher the risk of devaluation, especially if the market lacks appetite to absorb this volume.

  2. Investor Psychology: Many participants anticipate these events and sell their positions before the unlocks, fearing drops. This can trigger selling movements even before the event occurs.

  3. Limited Liquidity: In projects with low liquidity, even small unlocks can cause strong price fluctuations.

  4. Market Sentiment: If the project has a strong community or a positive catalyst, as happened with TRUMP, the impact may be mitigated — or even reversed.

How to Track the Unlocks?

For those who want to anticipate and plan their positions intelligently, tracking unlock schedules is essential. Here are some useful tools:

  • TokenUnlocks: The most popular. Lists upcoming unlocks, involved amounts, and percentage relative to the circulating supply.

  • CryptoRank: In addition to a detailed calendar, it shows token distribution charts and allows for setting up custom alerts.

  • CoinMarketCap: Has a section dedicated to tokenomics, with data on total supply, circulating supply, and future unlocks.

  • CoinGecko: Also allows you to track price history and events related to unlocks.

  • DeFi Llama: Ideal for those focusing on DeFi projects, with data on liquidity and relevant unlocks in this niche.

Strategies for Investors During Unlock Periods

In light of these scenarios, there are ways to position yourself better:

Short-term strategy (before the unlock):

  • Suggested allocation: 60% in stablecoins, 20% in Bitcoin, 20% in high liquidity tokens (like ETH and SOL).

  • Action: Avoid tokens with high percentages of scheduled unlock, like ALT. If you already have a position, consider selling before the event.

  • Opportunity: Place buy orders lower, anticipating possible drops.

Long-term strategy (after the unlock):

  • Suggested allocation: 40% Bitcoin, 30% in community-backed tokens (like TRUMP), 30% in stablecoins.

  • Action: After the event, look for tokens that have become 'cheap' but have recovery potential.

  • Tip: Check the sentiment on X (formerly Twitter) to understand the current narrative.

Balanced strategy:

  • Suggested allocation: 50% in stablecoins, 30% in BTC/ETH, 20% in tokens with future unlocks but with strong fundamentals.

  • Action: Monitor the unlock schedule, adjust your portfolio according to news, and prepare to take advantage of drops or avoid losses.

Keep an Eye: Token Unlocks Can Be Disguised Opportunities

Token unlocks can be frightening, but they also offer opportunities. Understanding the mechanics of these events, analyzing the data, and using appropriate tools makes all the difference. Projects with a good narrative and community support, as we saw with TRUMP, can recover quickly. Others, like PLUME, show that a lack of liquidity and catalysts can intensify the negative impact.

Staying alert to timelines and adjusting your strategy can be the difference between an avoidable loss and a well-calculated profit. In such a dynamic market as crypto, information and preparation are your greatest allies.

#tokenunlocks #trading #investimento

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Image by rojdesign, available on Freepik