#### 📌 5 Core Facts Explaining the Current Situation
1. Continuous Dominance:
- Controls 61.9% of the crypto market (highest level in 3 years).
- Market capitalization of $2.2 trillion (equivalent to the combined value of Apple and Microsoft!).
2. Rising Scarcity:
- 19.87 million BTC traded out of 21 million (94.6% of supply).
- Current annual inflation rate: 1.8% (lower than gold and traditional currencies).
3. Unprecedented Liquidity:
- Daily trading volume of $91.34 billion (4.16% of market cap) → clear institutional liquidity.
- 36,434 BTC purchased in large orders against only 5,612 BTC sold (net purchase of 30,822 BTC).
4. Critical Technical Performance:
- Near all-time high price ($111,861) → testing strong psychological resistance.
- RSI at 68 (strong buy signal but not yet overbought).
5. Size/Value Paradox:
- Volume to market cap ratio 4.16% (ideal for long-term investment) → no bubble here.
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#### 🎯 3 Trading Strategies Based on Trader Style
| Investment Profile | Entry Point | Stop Loss | Targets | Economic Justification |
|-----------------------|-----------------------|---------------------|---------------------|----------------------------------|
| Long Wallets | Any price below $110,000 | $99,000 | $150,000 → $250,000 | "Halving Theory" and supply reduction |
| Average Trader | Above $111,900 | $108,500 | $120,000 → $135,000 | Breaking historical resistance |
| Quick Speculator | $109,000-$110,000 | $107,000 | $112,500 | Exploiting the current tight range |
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#### ⚡ Possible Scenarios Based on Data
1. Bullish Breakout (60% chance):
- Breaking $111,861 → acceleration towards $120,000 then $135,000 (wave measurement theory).
- Driver: Adoption of a new ETF or interest rate cuts.
2. Sideways Accumulation (30%):
- Fluctuating between $105,000-$112,000 for weeks (accumulation before halving 2028).
3. Limited Correction (10%):
- Drop to $99,000 (strong previous support) → ideal buying opportunity.
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#### 💡 Investment Insights Not Known by Everyone
- Adjusted "SOPR" indicator: indicates that most BTC holders buy at $85,000-$95,000 → below current price → lower selling risks.
- Halving Timing 2028: Bitcoin historically starts its rise 12-18 months before the event → 2026-2027 may be bullish years.
- Technical Warning:
- If the price drops below $99,000 → it may test $85,000 (rare occurrence currently).
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#### 📌 Practical Recommendations for the Current Phase
✅ For new investors:
- Entering in batches (example: 30% now, 30% at $105,000, 40% at $99,000 if it happens).
✅ For traders:
- Exploiting daily volatility (3-5%) using OCO orders.
✅ For large wallets:
- Allocate 3-5% of the portfolio to BTC as "insurance against inflation."
> "Bitcoin is not just an asset... it is an economic phenomenon that redefines the concept of global saving."
Summary:
Bitcoin is in the "establishment phase after $150,000" – entering now is less risky than waiting.