After a long wait, Bitcoin finally broke through the previous high in the early hours of today and firmly stood above 110,000. This new high for Bitcoin once again confirms its cyclical nature. This wave pulled back from the previous high of 109,000 to a low of 75,000, which is almost identical to the previous round from 64,000 to 30,000 in 2021. Just like in 2021, Bitcoin is experiencing a deep pullback in a bull market before hitting new highs again. Moreover, considering the changes in market structure, it is no longer a game between retail investors and whales, but a competitive landscape between institutions. This is evident from the trading strategies of firms like BlackRock and MicroStrategy, which buy more as prices reach new highs. They see a market that far exceeds the internal expectations of the cryptocurrency community.
After four months, it has once again reached a new high, and it will directly hit 130,000 next, then 150,000. It's currently unclear how high it can go because there hasn't been any major liquidity injection yet, but the fact that there has been such a rush indicates that funds are really afraid of missing out on this bull market. Today, Binance launched the WLFi stablecoin USD1, which is solid evidence of Trump's investment in Binance. Previously, Binance announced it received a $2 billion investment from Abu Dhabi, reportedly in the form of USD1, essentially meaning that the Trump family has invested in Binance. Now that this is launched, it means the funds are in, and it is expected that a large number of USD1 trading pairs will be opened in the future. Additionally, the previously listed meme token 'B' on Binance has suddenly become related to WLFi, which may be issued by a member of the Trump family and was added to the WLFi reserves last night, causing its market value to directly surpass 260 million. Now, all projects related to WLFi and USD1 have taken off.
WLFi has announced its holdings in projects including ETH, WBTC, TRX, LINK, AAVE, ENA, MOVE, ONDO, SEI, AVAX, MNT, EOS. These are all worth paying attention to; they are all part of Trump's carefully selected sectors.
The US stock market fell yesterday, with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all experiencing declines of about 1.4-1.9%. Therefore, this time the cryptocurrency market did not follow the US stock market's lead, which means it has emerged as an independent market. Bitcoin's price surge is entirely supported by positive news such as stablecoin legislation. Bitcoin's current strength is primarily due to the reduction in positions in the US dollar, US bonds, and US stocks, freeing up some capital. As long as 1% of that capital is allocated to Bitcoin—note that it's allocation, not FOMO buying—this distinction must be clear.
Although Bitcoin has reached a new high, the overall cryptocurrency market value has not hit a new high, which means that other altcoins have not yet surged. In December 2024, the overall cryptocurrency market value was 3.7 trillion, while currently, it is only 3.4 trillion. The altcoin season index is currently only 25, so altcoins definitely haven't reached a crazy phase yet. What is driving Bitcoin is new money from outside the cryptocurrency sphere, significant funds, while altcoins, including Ethereum, have not yet enjoyed the favor of outside capital.
However, in every market cycle, Bitcoin tends to rise first, even possibly sucking up liquidity, and only after Bitcoin stops rising do other altcoins begin to surge. So this round, altcoins still have the opportunity to experience a periodic bull market. It all depends on how high Bitcoin can go; the higher it rises, the greater the momentum for altcoins later.
Recently, looking at the US stock market, there may be a pullback soon, as there hasn't been a decent pullback since April 22nd, and it has been rising continuously. However, the pullback won't be too large, probably around 5% at most. At that time, it might drag the cryptocurrency market down a bit, but the long-term outlook is definitely positive, as interest rate cuts will come in the second half of the year. In mid-May, any small pullback will be a good opportunity to get in.
In short, after Bitcoin's new high, it feels like altcoins are about to break out, so everyone should be prepared as altcoins can catch up at any time.
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